What a God damn fucking shitty day

[Raptorex]

well fuck, I'm talking about before the market comes back, I'm thinking I want to have some money invested in the next 3-4 months minimum.

I sort of like this
CVS Stock Quote | CVS Caremark Corp Research

 

[FriendlyCanadian]

thanks MM, that's a cool sight, I didn't even know about it.

 

[digimon7068]

So lets recap:

May 2008: Referral from a CPA sits down with me and says, "Hey 75th, I just sold a restaurant and have $3,000,000 to invest. I dont know anything about investing, but between 2003-2007 when everybody was making money, the two guys I work with at Merrill Lynch made me nothing. Take this and do whatever you want with it. Keep in mind, though, that Im 57 years old and dont want to lose too much."

Fast forward to 10 months later. The market is down 47%. This client is up....UP 6%. Not only that, but I sat down with her at least monthly through all this making sure she understood that she was doing well.

This morning's email: "75th, Ive decided to move my portfolio over to Merrill Lynch to the guys I complained about originally, even though they made me no money during the best bull market in history. Youve done great so far but Ive known them for a few years and like how they run every single change they are thinking about making by me first before they do it."


Seriously.

when i was very young, my grandfather told me, "there are more horses asses in this world than there are horses". . .

 

[needtogetarmy]

Ill bring the facts and figures home tomorrow, but our firm printed out a study that showed that for the DJIA to hit 5,000 we would have to have 20% unemployment and one or more major industries cease to exist.

I dont think its going to get anywhere near that bad. Besides, banking and autos will continue to exist in one form or another.

But then again, I thought the 7,552 bottom was going to hold.

Unemployment numbers from the federal government are totally unreliable. Their birth-death model is spurious. Unemployment is much higher than what is reported.

To respond to MM, fear can be modeled but it is not as accurate as normal statistical models. Elliot Wave Theory is a good example for a non-scientific modeling of greed and fear. Based on your other posts it looks like you trade using some technical analysis. I recommend checking out Elliot Wave if you have not heard about it. On the side of finance that I am now (empirical research) it is considered to be voodoo. So is technical analysis although the best financial researchers (many up at MIT who also run hedge funds) use it extensively. George Soros' books are also good reads although his ideas are next to impossible to model.

I also agree that what is happening now is different. Just like I said in previous posts, past prices and past patterns do not necessarily predict future prices and patterns. It is quite possible the dynamics we are now facing are different.

The big thing for me are the policies that are coming out of DC. It is causing a lot of fear. A good example is Treasury Secretary Geithner. He has not set up his cabinet, it is literally empty. He then testifies before Congress and openly supports energy caps and other policies that will clearly have a negative effect on the economy. Not to mention we are in the biggest economic crisis since the depression and we should be doing just the opposite. It is a pure nightmare.

For a long term outlook, a worst case scenario is Obama continues to get his budgets and policies passed. The economy does not recover, thus tax revenues fall. If the deficit doubles, and this is realistic, and if tax revenues fall under $2 trillion, it is quite possible that the interest payments on US debt are half of the tax revenues. That is the point of no return. Period.

As for other industries failing look to the airlines. Also, look at Obama's policies towards oil and coal companies. The oil companies will not even come close to failing but the years of having record profits will come to a close. He is also pinching them on exploration and drilling. The long term outlook for them is not good. Health care? The government wants control over it. Some of the legislation I have seen is going to limit the care given to people to lower costs and that will pinch profits.

The bottom line is that there are few, if any, silver linings in any of his economic policies, unless you are looking for a handout or are unemployed or are on welfare. 2/3 of the stimulus went towards nonproductive users of capital. Not to mention we will pay interest on that for the next 30 years.

Although I can see the side of the argument that the DJIA should not go down to 5000, it is possible. The levels we are at are critical based on psychology. If it breaks these levels there is no support below.

Regardless, the long term outlook looks very, very bleak. My wife is considering a move back to Europe. If things get worse a move might be a good idea. And this is coming from someone who would have walked across a minefield for his country one time in his life.

I had my rant. Let's hope for the sake of the nation I am wrong. I hope I am.

 

[needtogetarmy]

Sweet god it keeps getting worse:

Bankruptcy home loan bill passes House

 

[Razorguns]

I would've put that money into gold and went on vacation.

r

 

[Razorguns]

Army Vet: Look up Milkwaukee Schools. He talks about 'building schools' yet Milwaukee School District has like 5 empty buildings not even used, and nowhere near capacity with no plans on building anyting.

hahaha. It's just welfare for Unions, who will grab these jobs, with profits going to union leaders, the contracting companies who are Obama's friends, and their highly overpaid fat union workers (ring a bell longshoremen?). It will just create a few overpaid inefficient jobs, creating empty schools and studying owls in forest. Shit that does nothing in terms of making us competitive globally. Making the private sector completly reliable on the government. Forcing people to stay in expensive homes, and when they can't - taxpayers pay. Sweet.

Oh well, this is the CHANGE we need! lol.

r

 

[hanselthecaretaker]

So lets recap:

May 2008: Referral from a CPA sits down with me and says, "Hey 75th, I just sold a restaurant and have $3,000,000 to invest. I dont know anything about investing, but between 2003-2007 when everybody was making money, the two guys I work with at Merrill Lynch made me nothing. Take this and do whatever you want with it. Keep in mind, though, that Im 57 years old and dont want to lose too much."

Fast forward to 10 months later. The market is down 47%. This client is up....UP 6%. Not only that, but I sat down with her at least monthly through all this making sure she understood that she was doing well.

This morning's email: "75th, Ive decided to move my portfolio over to Merrill Lynch to the guys I complained about originally, even though they made me no money during the best bull market in history. Youve done great so far but Ive known them for a few years and like how they run every single change they are thinking about making by me first before they do it."


Seriously.

When she goes bankrupt and comes crawling back for help simply say, "Sorry but I make decisions on the fly, which is why I made you money during a recession and also why I can't help you now."

 

[jnevin]

So just so we're clear, Hillary Clinton...by legit hardworking posters you mean white posters, correct?

Don't you dare call me hard working.

 

[jnevin]

Between the weed thats now in my lungs and the miller lite in mah belleh I dont really know a lot about fear.

Except for spiders. I gotta go make sure my patio door is shut. Fuckers camp out on there when it gets warm. I Raid their asses.

1 beer? 75th puked.