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King Kong Opening Weekend Gross
- Thread starter AAP
- Start date
swole
Well-known member
AAP said:
There might actually be odds for this event listed somewhere. In your mind, you placed equal value on all of the betting options, which is why they are all set at 5:1. Now, that's A LOT of juice for the bookie, considering there are 12 available betting options. I'm thinking a 10:1 for each value would have been good, unless you think the two lowest and highest amounts have a less chance of being the winner. If this was so, you could have put something like 9:1 odds on the middle 8 betting fields with 10:1 on the top and lowest 2.
You would have attracted more attention with those odds, and might have made more in the process as well.
S
Spartacus
Guest
or a big ass negative 10000bluehen said:
lol i'd love to break your ass on this one. but i don't want to donate 50,000 pts to you either 
S
Spartacus
Guest
I'm gonna research this
i'm thinking this movie doesn't make 65 mil the whole 5 days. preliminary reviews say the special effects suck, ala godzilla. and it's NOT forecast to outperform Narnia, which earned 65 mil (in 3 days)4everhung said:
i'd bet the farm on the first option
S
Spartacus
Guest
I thought about betting under tooDevastation said:
trouble is I wagered 97000 last night leaving me with no jack to spend
I went 9-4-1 so I'll reload fine,but it closes at 6am and I doubt swole will be settling by then
BTW I found the definitive link for the analysis
http://www.worldofkj.com/boxoffice/Previews/KingKong.php
excerpt;
Competition
Competition is a bit heavy for “King Kong,” though nothing really threatens its potential. “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” recently opened to the fourth highest opening weekend ever, but by the time “Kong” arrives, Potter’s weekend’s should be under $10 million. Other holdovers are “Aeon Flux” and “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.” “Aeon Flux” looks to be the next action bomb and shouldn’t affect “Kong” one bit, while “Narnia” looks to take the giant ape head-on. Big numbers are expected for “Narnia” since it caters a marketplace going through LOTR withdrawal. “Narnia” will also benefit from spillover since some potential audience members will fall victim to “Kong” sell outs. The effect, however, will be minimal. There’s enough room for both films to co-exist. “King Kong” releases the same week as “The Family Stone,” which might attract the female audience.
Box Office Effect: Neutral
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Spartacus
Guest
Release Date
It comes as no surprise that director Peter Jackson and Universal wanted to grab the third weekend in December, similar to “The Fellowship of the Ring” in 2001, “The Two Towers” in 2002, and “The Return of the King” in 2003. This holiday weekend is perfect for blockbusters because a film released on this weekend gets to take full advantage of the Christmas weekend to follow, helping the legs of the film. Similar to “Lord of the Rings,” “Kong” will be released on a Wednesday, giving it five days to make its mark before the schools are out. “The Fellowship of the Ring” opened to $75.1 million over five days, “The Two Towers” opened to $102 million over five days, and “The Return of the King” opened to $124.1 million.
While December is great for the right type of films (tentpole blockbusters like LOTR), the month is more about legs with Christmas giving even the most frontloaded and otherwise unspectacular film like “Blade: Trinity” or “Star Trek: Insurrection” good legs. “King Kong” will benefit in a big, big way here. Here’s a look at the box-office multipliers for various December openers:
Multipliers (without previous total for Wednesday openers)
The Return of the King: 4.48x
The Two Towers: 4.83x
The Fellowship of the Ring: 6.05x
Meet the Fockers: 5.52x
Multipliers are generally large for films released around Christmas. “King Kong” should be no exception, though it will not reach the multipliers of these films, either.
Box Office Effect: Positive
It comes as no surprise that director Peter Jackson and Universal wanted to grab the third weekend in December, similar to “The Fellowship of the Ring” in 2001, “The Two Towers” in 2002, and “The Return of the King” in 2003. This holiday weekend is perfect for blockbusters because a film released on this weekend gets to take full advantage of the Christmas weekend to follow, helping the legs of the film. Similar to “Lord of the Rings,” “Kong” will be released on a Wednesday, giving it five days to make its mark before the schools are out. “The Fellowship of the Ring” opened to $75.1 million over five days, “The Two Towers” opened to $102 million over five days, and “The Return of the King” opened to $124.1 million.
While December is great for the right type of films (tentpole blockbusters like LOTR), the month is more about legs with Christmas giving even the most frontloaded and otherwise unspectacular film like “Blade: Trinity” or “Star Trek: Insurrection” good legs. “King Kong” will benefit in a big, big way here. Here’s a look at the box-office multipliers for various December openers:
Multipliers (without previous total for Wednesday openers)
The Return of the King: 4.48x
The Two Towers: 4.83x
The Fellowship of the Ring: 6.05x
Meet the Fockers: 5.52x
Multipliers are generally large for films released around Christmas. “King Kong” should be no exception, though it will not reach the multipliers of these films, either.
Box Office Effect: Positive
S
Spartacus
Guest
Star Power
“King Kong” has a decent cast, including Jack Black, Naomi Watts, and Adrian Brody. However, their drawing powers are limited. Out of the three, Jack Black probably has the brightest star, but he’s not a proven draw as of yet. However, “King Kong” doesn’t need big draws to succeed as “Lord of the Rings” wasn’t successful because of its cast. The real star of the film is the big guy himself, King Kong. The biggest draw outside of Kong, is director/co-writer Peter Jackson. I know it’s hard to imagine, but the guy does have a fan base. There’s a good chance that “Lord of the Rings” fans will also support this film, mainly due to Peter Jackson being involved in the picture.
Box Office Effect: Positive
“King Kong” has a decent cast, including Jack Black, Naomi Watts, and Adrian Brody. However, their drawing powers are limited. Out of the three, Jack Black probably has the brightest star, but he’s not a proven draw as of yet. However, “King Kong” doesn’t need big draws to succeed as “Lord of the Rings” wasn’t successful because of its cast. The real star of the film is the big guy himself, King Kong. The biggest draw outside of Kong, is director/co-writer Peter Jackson. I know it’s hard to imagine, but the guy does have a fan base. There’s a good chance that “Lord of the Rings” fans will also support this film, mainly due to Peter Jackson being involved in the picture.
Box Office Effect: Positive
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Spartacus
Guest
Marketing/Theater Counts
Marketing, so far, has been fantastic. The trailer to “King Kong” was attached to many of the big summer and fall films. Commercials have been running everywhere, and AMC is even shows a small feature about the making and inspiration of “King Kong” during their pre-show. The film has made an appearance on several buzz-tracking resources (such as Yahoo! Buzz Chart) more than a month before its release, showing that there is a high awareness for the film. Universal has given “King Kong” one of the strongest marketing campaigns I’ve seen this year.
Considering the amount of effort going into the marketing, the theater count should be strong. Universal isn’t the best company for giving films large theater counts. The biggest count a Universal film has received was 3,660 for “Hulk” back in the summer of 2003, which is good, but a far cry from the record theater counts other companies give their films. There is a good chance that Universal will give “Kong” a theater count in the 3,600 range, with a decent chance at giving “Kong” a record theater count for the company. I think the absolute minimum is 3,400 and the maximum would be around 3,700. Once the count hits a certain point (around 3,400, at least), the difference doesn’t matter much. At that point, “Kong” must be able to acquire a great amount of screens. The only films that’ll take away screens on the weekend “Kong” opens is “The Chronicles of Narnia” and “The Family Stone.” If “Narnia” is big, it’ll give “Kong” a fight for the screens, and although “Kong” should average more screens per theater that weekend, it might not reach its full potential. It all depends on how successful “Narnia” is the weekend before.
Box-Office Effect: Positive
Marketing, so far, has been fantastic. The trailer to “King Kong” was attached to many of the big summer and fall films. Commercials have been running everywhere, and AMC is even shows a small feature about the making and inspiration of “King Kong” during their pre-show. The film has made an appearance on several buzz-tracking resources (such as Yahoo! Buzz Chart) more than a month before its release, showing that there is a high awareness for the film. Universal has given “King Kong” one of the strongest marketing campaigns I’ve seen this year.
Considering the amount of effort going into the marketing, the theater count should be strong. Universal isn’t the best company for giving films large theater counts. The biggest count a Universal film has received was 3,660 for “Hulk” back in the summer of 2003, which is good, but a far cry from the record theater counts other companies give their films. There is a good chance that Universal will give “Kong” a theater count in the 3,600 range, with a decent chance at giving “Kong” a record theater count for the company. I think the absolute minimum is 3,400 and the maximum would be around 3,700. Once the count hits a certain point (around 3,400, at least), the difference doesn’t matter much. At that point, “Kong” must be able to acquire a great amount of screens. The only films that’ll take away screens on the weekend “Kong” opens is “The Chronicles of Narnia” and “The Family Stone.” If “Narnia” is big, it’ll give “Kong” a fight for the screens, and although “Kong” should average more screens per theater that weekend, it might not reach its full potential. It all depends on how successful “Narnia” is the weekend before.
Box-Office Effect: Positive
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Spartacus
Guest
Final Thoughts/Box-Office Prediction
“King Kong” has a lot of advantages. Peter Jackson’s name should easily bring in fans. Fans of the original film (or King Kong in general) should also come in large numbers. The month of December should give “King Kong” a very good multiplier, unlike the summer, where it would have been very frontloaded. The strong marketing should pay off for Universal, and if the theater count is right, “King Kong” will have nothing to worry about except competition from “Narnia,” “Fun with Dick and Jane,” and a few other films.
Expectations are high for “King Kong” to save the box-office, and it does seem like “Kong” can do it. Given the amount of hype, the Wednesday release, and the fact that “Kong” should be frontloaded, a PTA close to “Fantastic Four” and “War of the Worlds” from earlier this year seem likely for the 3-day weekend. This PTA would also be a little higher than “The Fellowship of the Ring,” but the general hype seems to be much bigger. “King Kong” should be able to accumulate around $35 million from Wednesday and Thursday alone. The 3-day weekend should be in the range of $55-60 million, and with the addition gross, the 5-day figure should be around $90-95 million. “Return of the King,” the most frontloaded of the “Lord of the Rings” series, made 33% of its total gross on its opening five-day weekend. Including the competition and assuming that “Kong” is more frontloaded, the total gross for “Kong” should be in the range of $240-260 million.
The low range for “King Kong” would be around $45-50 million for the 3-day weekend, $75-80 million for the 5-day, and around $210-230 million total. The high range would be around $65-70 million for the 3-day, $100-110 million for the 5-day, and $260-280 million total. There’s a good possibility that “King Kong” will surpass $300 million total, but it will need some fantastic word-of-mouth to accomplish this. It’s not out of the question, though.
Final Prediction
Opening Weekend: $55 million (3-day) / $90 million (5-day)
“King Kong” has a lot of advantages. Peter Jackson’s name should easily bring in fans. Fans of the original film (or King Kong in general) should also come in large numbers. The month of December should give “King Kong” a very good multiplier, unlike the summer, where it would have been very frontloaded. The strong marketing should pay off for Universal, and if the theater count is right, “King Kong” will have nothing to worry about except competition from “Narnia,” “Fun with Dick and Jane,” and a few other films.
Expectations are high for “King Kong” to save the box-office, and it does seem like “Kong” can do it. Given the amount of hype, the Wednesday release, and the fact that “Kong” should be frontloaded, a PTA close to “Fantastic Four” and “War of the Worlds” from earlier this year seem likely for the 3-day weekend. This PTA would also be a little higher than “The Fellowship of the Ring,” but the general hype seems to be much bigger. “King Kong” should be able to accumulate around $35 million from Wednesday and Thursday alone. The 3-day weekend should be in the range of $55-60 million, and with the addition gross, the 5-day figure should be around $90-95 million. “Return of the King,” the most frontloaded of the “Lord of the Rings” series, made 33% of its total gross on its opening five-day weekend. Including the competition and assuming that “Kong” is more frontloaded, the total gross for “Kong” should be in the range of $240-260 million.
The low range for “King Kong” would be around $45-50 million for the 3-day weekend, $75-80 million for the 5-day, and around $210-230 million total. The high range would be around $65-70 million for the 3-day, $100-110 million for the 5-day, and $260-280 million total. There’s a good possibility that “King Kong” will surpass $300 million total, but it will need some fantastic word-of-mouth to accomplish this. It’s not out of the question, though.
Final Prediction
Opening Weekend: $55 million (3-day) / $90 million (5-day)
i see that. i think it has something to do with aap editing this event after it was open and someone bet75th said:
no you are in on the line you bet. it's the formatting on that page that is fuked75th said:
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The Shadow
Guest
Closed already??
I was gonna drop 50k on the 130m and higher
I was gonna drop 50k on the 130m and higher
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The Shadow
Guest
done
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The Shadow
Guest
you DO mean US gross, right?
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The Shadow
Guest
fuck...I just realized the movies is 3 hours.....
doubtfull it will break any records....
doubtfull it will break any records....
Rottentomatos has it at 85%...so basically one of the top 20 reviewed movies of the year.AAP said:
I factored in the 3 hour running time...ROTK did $35mil on its opening Wednesday, and I think Kong is playing on just a few more screens than ROTK.
I think people were just afraid all the shows were going to be sold out so nobody even bothered going.
S
Spartacus
Guest
I think it was 35mil on wed and thrusday75th said:
if i was you peoples i would have listened to this guy^^^Devastation said:
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bigmann245
New member
well it only made just under 10 mil opening day so i guess its going to be a low low number. they predict 58 mil total from the weekend. damn dev you were right.
TOTALS TO DATE
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire .. $252.5 million
The Chronicles of Narnia ............. $112.5 million
Walk the Line ......... $ 82.5 million
King Kong ............. $ 66.2 million
this was as of sunday morning. the first option would have missed it then. maybe the 2nd or 3rd option will win, but that's about it i would bet
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire .. $252.5 million
The Chronicles of Narnia ............. $112.5 million
Walk the Line ......... $ 82.5 million
King Kong ............. $ 66.2 million
this was as of sunday morning. the first option would have missed it then. maybe the 2nd or 3rd option will win, but that's about it i would bet
yes mr. rosenthal, you keep the karmaAAP said:
cuz i didn't want to donate anything to you of all people.AAP said:
from this article:
http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/weekendboxofficea.html
King Kong" got to $66.2 million in its first five days.
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The Shadow
Guest
The total Is saw on the TOday show was close to 60 mil for Fri-Sun
this event was for wed-sun thoThe Shadow said:
bigmann245
New member
either way nobody won.
T
The Shadow
Guest
Devastation said:
yeah - my point was that the 60mil figure you saw is just for Friday-sunday...another 40-45 million on wed and thur
lol wtf are you talking about? did you read that link i posted?The Shadow said:
And "King Kong" did not measure up to the first five days of "Fellowship of the Ring," which debuted on a Wednesday and had grossed $75.1 million domestically by Sunday. Also opening Wednesday, "King Kong" got to $66.2 million in its first five days.
66.2 million is the winning number
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The Shadow
Guest
Devastation said:
you didnt read what I said.....TODAY show stated that the Friday-Sunday total was 66.2 million.......
This isnt an argement either way...Im just stating what they reported this am
ok i didn't see anything about the Today show lol. but they got their facts wrong i thing. btw weds gross was 10milThe Shadow said:
hamstershaver
New member
yahoo says the weekend was 50 mil and cumulative was 66 mil
2nd option was the right choice
no winner, AAP cleans up
2nd option was the right choice
no winner, AAP cleans up
bigmann245
New member
damn...
