Stock Market

[the nature boy]

hey martha, you need to start following professional sports and start giving out picks.

 

[MarthaStewart]

Yeah, I have thought about that too.

One problem is that I need a lot of back history in order for my code to work properly.
The only sport that they have shown to repeatedly and successfullly predict with computer models such as these are Australian Horse Racing.

I don't follow Horse Racing, so I have no clue what that one is more successful in terms of predictability.

If I could get a lot of back data - ideally cheap or free to start so that I don't have to waste money while developing the system, then I would consider it.

Or I could just make up stuff and post that.

 

[MarthaStewart]

hmmmm, I think sports would be more difficult now that I think about it. there are too many variables to account for. teams change players every year, people get hurt, and just the fact that humans are involved makes trending much more difficult IMO. now if there was a sport with robots in them, that might be a different story.

You could arge the same thing about stocks.

 

[the nature boy]

Yeah, I have thought about that too.

One problem is that I need a lot of back history in order for my code to work properly.
The only sport that they have shown to repeatedly and successfullly predict with computer models such as these are Australian Horse Racing.

I don't follow Horse Racing, so I have no clue what that one is more successful in terms of predictability.

If I could get a lot of back data - ideally cheap or free to start so that I don't have to waste money while developing the system, then I would consider it.

Or I could just make up stuff and post that.

hmmmm, I think sports would be more difficult now that I think about it. there are too many variables to account for. teams change players every year, people get hurt, and just the fact that humans are involved makes trending much more difficult IMO. now if there was a sport with robots in them, that might be a different story.

 

[the nature boy]

You could arge the same thing about stocks.

true but what about the outcomes? in sports you win lose or push (very rare). in the stock game you can program your online stock broker thingy to sell your stock when it dips below a certain level. right?

 

[MarthaStewart]

true but what about the outcomes? in sports you win lose or push (very rare). in the stock game you can program your online stock broker thingy to sell your stock when it dips below a certain level. right?

In sports, a team can win, lose, or tie.

In stocks, a ticker can go up, down, or no change.

In stocks you can make money off of an up or down scenerio, if you know it is coming.

I don't know enough about sports and betting - but I would imagine that it is the same, you can make money off of a win or loss, as long as you know which it will be ahead of time.

A team has many members, and any one of them could screw up the outcome of the game.
A stock has many things that contribute to its rise/fall - stocks that it is paired with, the people that work at the company, the products that it is based on, etc.

It does sound like if a third baseman just decides he doesn't really care about diving for a ball or not today, that could change a lot in the game, and be hard to predict.
The human error factor - but there is a lot of that in stocks as well - you are essentially hoping that humans are actually at the helm - the fact that they are irrational actually frequently helps.

The issue is that it is unlikely that there is enough data available to track it properly - at least with stocks there is a crapload of data on hand.

 

[the nature boy]

I guess what I meant was if you lose a bet you're down 100 or 1000 or whatever. with stocks, you can set a limit to only lose X amount of money before you sell as opposed to losing the entire amount a la sports betting.

 

[MattTheSkywalker]

The problem with these is that traders can easily spot when they are dealing with something programmed or pre-arranged.

I wish you luck though...

 

[MarthaStewart]

Here are today's stocks:
ALT
HITK
IGT
IMH
KBH
FCN

As usual, looking at the open to the high.
High minus the open, all divided by the open.

ALT
0.033557
yes (3.36%)

HITK
0.063661
yes (6.37%)

IGT
nope (0.07%)

IMH
0.007462
yes (0.75%)

KBH
0.003424
nope (0.34%)

FCN
0.065533
yes (6.55%)

So out of 6, 4 of them hit plenty. KBH wasn't that far off, but still didn't make it.

4/6
67%



Shall I keep posting them this week? Or does anyone care?

 

[jnuts]

Shall I keep posting them this week? Or does anyone care?

Yes, please post