Stock market direction

[gonelifting]

Are we headed lower? Seems to be toppy, but everyone has their opinion. I'm betting it will go down for a bit, even if it's temporary. Don't ask me for a year out, just for the near future. I'm shorting with SDS for now. Been losing for a week straight, but I'll hang on until it gets too crazy or I might double down. This thing doesn't go straight up forever. lol

Anyone? wtf? 40 views with no replies!? (<--- just in case)

 

[bran987]

GL, no idea, but there is something interesting to consider. Only $80 billion out of the $700 billion stimulus package has been spent so far, but $360 billion is scheduled to be spent next year. That is a lot of tail wind. (A LOT!) I made some money with SDS last year, it's a fun one.

BTW Hi dad I miss you

 

[samoth]

Dow to 40k!

 

[gonelifting]

lol 40k eventually...



I've been in and out of SSO and have done great for two calendar years. This is the first time, after selling SSo that I went short. It's rough. I'm not used to these shorting instruments. I know you're supposed to hold them short term, but damn... 9 up days in a row. It's gotta land on black one of these spins!! lol

I'm only down 5% or so, I'm not too worried as of yet. I might want to double down from here. Any day now... seriously.

Made 40 - 60% last year. Could have been more but got greedy. lol

Made some more this year, but now this is putting a dent in things. Still way up though. -5%, pfft. I laugh!

Be home by 10, son.

 

[ortiz34]

I say all in

good to have you back

who are you?

 

[gonelifting]

Hey, I'm a Mentur!

 

[needtogetarmy]

GL, no idea, but there is something interesting to consider. Only $80 billion out of the $700 billion stimulus package has been spent so far, but $360 billion is scheduled to be spent next year. That is a lot of tail wind. (A LOT!) I made some money with SDS last year, it's a fun one.

BTW Hi dad I miss you

And the interest on the debt is going to consume the majority of federal tax receipts which will be a huge strain on long term growth. The market is currently trading at a huge premium. People expecting it continue to move up could be correct, irrationality and herd behavior directs movements, not fundamentals, but the majority of data I am looking at doesn't paint a rosy picture.

The volume in this current leg is weak. The majority of economic data looks horrible too. Real unemployment is close to 17%. The dollar is weak and it is going to continue to fall. There is not much to be optimistic about.

95% of individual investors lose money and 95% of professional mutual fund managers can't beat the market after accounting for fees. The fools are following the blind.

 

[Razorguns]

I don't waste my time with the stock market unless I have asymmetric info. Otherwise it's just gambling and you have a better chance in vegas. If u don't know what you're doing == gambling regardless of what stock, fund, etc. you buy. Most learn this the hard way (remember madoff, mortgage crisis, dot-bomb? hahahaha).

r

 

[gonelifting]

I don't waste my time with the stock market unless I have asymmetric info. Otherwise it's just gambling and you have a better chance in vegas. If u don't know what you're doing == gambling regardless of what stock, fund, etc. you buy. Most learn this the hard way (remember madoff, mortgage crisis, dot-bomb? hahahaha).

r

Seems like ignorance to me. If not in stocks, then what would you do with your savings? Under the proverbial mattress? Inflation will kill you.

Unless you invest in something that will make a good return while still being able to do your normal career, then you really need to invest it in the market or something similar.

You're using examples that are not the norm. They happen, but if you had followed rules of investing, you would not lose all your money like some people have.


Btw, I know a couple of people personally, who have lost money with Madeoff.



Besides, the mattress gets too lumpy with all that cash.

 

[Razorguns]

Seems like ignorance to me. If not in stocks, then what would you do with your savings? Under the proverbial mattress? Inflation will kill you.

Unless you invest in something that will make a good return while still being able to do your normal career, then you really need to invest it in the market or something similar.

You're using examples that are not the norm. They happen, but if you had followed rules of investing, you would not lose all your money like some people have.


Btw, I know a couple of people personally, who have lost money with Madeoff.

Besides, the mattress gets too lumpy with all that cash.

Buffet invests. Joe Cheeseburger with his 30k on etrade, gambles. Big difference.

Got lotsa money and want to keep it's value: gold. That's what I always suggest for long term holding that withstands inflation, dollar devaluation, etc. It's been stable for 10,000 years and not going away anytime soon.

r

 

[Beaverscratch]

What about a deflationary environment like the current one?

 

[Mr. dB]

I say it's going east.

 

[captainahole]

I'm bullish on the market both the index's (qqqq) and gold (gld spiders) especially gold. First hint of inflation man it will f@@k off up.
However we need some news.