This makes no sense. You're extrapolating that higher gas prices results in fewer bad drivers? Ummm how? So you're saying that bad drivers can't afford to pay at the pump? Plenty of bad drivers that have money.
I just met with the head of sourcing from the world's largest insurance company and one of the few that insures those fields. (they front for local admitted companies).
He said no one controls shit in Nigeria, even the government half the time Tough place to do biz. He told a funny ass story about how the regional governor awarded a contract to his brother to provide insurance, even though his brother did not even know what insurance was.
That was some funny shit. Eventually the local governor relented, and the plant got built. Was that your friend invovled in that?
My younger brother lives next to a guy who is one of the top commoditities traders in the US. He's a guy with a Russian background, lives just north of NYC. I wonder if you two know each other. You know any NYC area traders?
If they were maxed out, they wouldn't be seeking additional allocations because their stock piles would just become larger. They wouldn't be able to process additional inventory fast enough.