Stock market prediction stats

[NoDaddyNo]

Cool Martha, how did you get on with the interested backers?

Most everyone that I've talked to about it wants to hire me for just themselves.

I will start up my company and if it fails, then I will likely just go with a single person or fund if the incentives are good.

I'm also looking into using certain code in the company and then different code for other companies. So the people that subscribe get one thing, then the funds that use it get their own customized code.

 

[Lumberg]

??
I assume you mean a month?

sorry I meant 250 the 5 key on my KB is bad.

 

[TheProject]

those are just a few I banged out last night.

heh...he said "banged".

 

[NoDaddyNo]

sorry I meant 250 the 5 key on my KB is bad.

Oh, then yes - 250 is pretty much the trading days for a year.

And you are right, .5% a day is better than 2% a month.

But 2% a month is obviously showing a better predicition rate right now (and has been for over 8 months now), so would you rather have a sure 20% return on your money, or a risky N% gain?

If you are young, then the risky would probably make more sense. If you just want a calm(er) sure thing, then the former.

 

[gonelifting]

I`ll be looking out for your website. I`m always interested in trading for some extra money.

I personally like to go in and out within the same day or max a few days, depending on the stock.

 

[NoDaddyNo]

I`ll be looking out for your website. I`m always interested in trading for some extra money.

I personally like to go in and out within the same day or max a few days, depending on the stock.

I agree.
The .5% one is nice for that - I'm working on a few that are better than that - in that they are designed for that type of trading - like I said, the .5% was using code that wasn't really designed for that (it was looking at the close for day N and then figuring out if day N+1 would have a higher close - but then the trading method and stats are looking at what day N+1, "today", opens at and then the high for the day since that is how it would really be traded).

The 21 days is nice because it is right a lot. It will be something that will be more obvious as it collects more stats over time.
But if you do get in and it goes down, then you either decide on how much you are willing to go down - feasibly missing out on it truly going up at the end of the month - or you ride out the month, losing the whole time.
Whereas on the short term ones, you have less time to lose the money - not that you can't lose just as much if not more that way

Most of my things are setup for safe and slow gains - but still pretty good gains (20%+ over a year is still excellent and I encourage you to find funds doing that right now in this market - I can think of only a few off the top of my head).

When I personally trade, I like gap trading - I personally can make way more that way, but it is harder to write prediction code for that (not impossible since I have a bit right now).

Right now for the company's algorithms I'm leaning towards this stuff, pairs trading, trend tracking, and stochastic modeling as what the algorithms will track.

 

[WODIN]

I'd bang the shit out of 20% like it were Jenna Jameson!

 

[NoDaddyNo]

I keep thinking that my site is about a month out from being done - and then something else comes up to block it. But I am making a lot of progress and it at this point I still feel that it is a month or maybe even less.
The design is currently setup to be light and fast, but it isn't particularly amazing looking or anything.
Once it is up and running (well, up and live to the public), then I will likely change the look and feel of it so that it is cooler.

Right now there are sites out there doing personal analysis - like Joe Trader recommends you buy ABCD at 75, but in terms of purely technical analysis using high level computational modeling, there are only two other sites that I'm aware of available to the public.
And of those, one is only in Australia and the other is more geared towards fund managers and not the wide public of day traders.

 

[FatRat]

Nice little niche! Would be good to get that early entry advantage over the inevitable competition. Don’t forget us when you have retired in a couple of years! I can’t help thinking that this would have been hugely useful in the recent Bear markets…

 

[NoDaddyNo]

Nice little niche! Would be good to get that early entry advantage over the inevitable competition. Don’t forget us when you have retired in a couple of years! I can’t help thinking that this would have been hugely useful in the recent Bear markets…

I know of at least 4 others that tried something like it in '99 to '00 and they went under. It isn't clear to me if their code was so bad that it collapsed under the El Farol effect even in the good markets, or if they made enough moeny that they just decided to let the company die and they didn't care.

As for how it does in the markets - I know the 2% one does well - that is the one I have tweaked the most.
I'm less concerned about tweaking the other two that I have shown because I don't personally think the .5% one is that great, and the other is good enough, but I'm adding in better code and I will redo the algorithms - so they will all be better soon enough.

I think maybe up to 5% over 21 days is doable, but I have a 10% over 21 days running as well just out of curiosity.