Peak Oil Production ?

[Big Rick Rock]

What do you guys think?


How long till we hit a $200 barrel?


Discuss only if you know what the hell you are talking about.

 

[75th]

I would be surprised if this occurs within the next 12-18 months...probably the latter.

 

[kx250rider]

I do have some good knowledge on this. First, supply and demand will keep the price of oil at exactly what the public is willing to pay. Not a penny more or less, and it's been that way since we began using oil as fuel. Prices do get manipulated by oil futures investors, but they can't stay above true value very long, as the demand drops off and we have a glut (as happened last year). When the government panics and puts a control on prices, as Carter did in the 70s, oil producers will back off and wait it out, which causes a shortage. As far as the "peak oil" syndrome, that's a scare tactic which was carefully and deviously invented by environmental extremists about 5 years ago. The fact is, we have plenty of oil in the ground, in fact more below California and Mexico than in all of Saudi Arabia according to what all I've read. And as we continue to use it, more oil forms naturally as fossils continue to decay far underground, as they have been for millions of years. It is probably true that we're drilling it faster than it's being created, but the fact is that as long as organic life on earth lives and dies, oil will continue to be created. If it goes to $200/barrel, and it LIKELY WILL for at least a short time within the next 10 years, it means the public is willing to pay it. Not happily, but willing.

Am I full of sh*t? If you think so, that's fine, I'm not here to debate it. Am I qualified to have the opinion I wrote here? All I can say is that other members of our family are in the oil business in West Texas, and we have 150 years experience in estimating yield from wells in the Permian Basin. I guess 150 years of accurate guessing might mean something. There's plenty of oil for many, many generations to come, not counting the Middle East.

Charles

 

[Whiskey]

^^^^ Oil in the form of tar first? And then it's thought to take hundreds of thousands of years for the process to occur.

I'd like to know when someone plans to build a new oil refinery! There hasn't been a new oil refinery built in the U.S. since 1976.... WTF!?!

Whiskey

 

[bakemeacookie]

I do have some good knowledge on this. First, supply and demand will keep the price of oil at exactly what the public is willing to pay. Not a penny more or less, and it's been that way since we began using oil as fuel. Prices do get manipulated by oil futures investors, but they can't stay above true value very long, as the demand drops off and we have a glut (as happened last year). When the government panics and puts a control on prices, as Carter did in the 70s, oil producers will back off and wait it out, which causes a shortage. As far as the "peak oil" syndrome, that's a scare tactic which was carefully and deviously invented by environmental extremists about 5 years ago. The fact is, we have plenty of oil in the ground, in fact more below California and Mexico than in all of Saudi Arabia according to what all I've read. And as we continue to use it, more oil forms naturally as fossils continue to decay far underground, as they have been for millions of years. It is probably true that we're drilling it faster than it's being created, but the fact is that as long as organic life on earth lives and dies, oil will continue to be created. If it goes to $200/barrel, and it LIKELY WILL for at least a short time within the next 10 years, it means the public is willing to pay it. Not happily, but willing.

Am I full of sh*t? If you think so, that's fine, I'm not here to debate it. Am I qualified to have the opinion I wrote here? All I can say is that other members of our family are in the oil business in West Texas, and we have 150 years experience in estimating yield from wells in the Permian Basin. I guess 150 years of accurate guessing might mean something. There's plenty of oil for many, many generations to come, not counting the Middle East.

Charles

yeah what he said!

oh and don't forget trading in us dollar reserves protects our currency and our ability to use our war machine to defend and fight for oil ... secures our way of life for a long long time. All wars are ultimately about energy.

(oh and repatriating saudi oil dollars into arms purchases for them is a great little scam we got goinmg on. Also ensures they are in bed with us and do not desire for us to suffer. So what if we have a 9/11 now and then when poor saudis figure out that we rape their oil and dollars and keep their oppressors in power. Big deal. Shit happens).

c

 

[SpyWizard]

^^^^ Oil in the form of tar first? And then it's thought to take hundreds of thousands of years for the process to occur.

I'd like to know when someone plans to build a new oil refinery! There hasn't been a new oil refinery built in the U.S. since 1976.... WTF!?!

Whiskey

social engineering.. king obama and minions know what's best for you, now just sit back and take it.. and your kids and grand kids can take it too..

not you specifically, it's figurative..

 

[kx250rider]

^^^^ Oil in the form of tar first? And then it's thought to take hundreds of thousands of years for the process to occur.

I'd like to know when someone plans to build a new oil refinery! There hasn't been a new oil refinery built in the U.S. since 1976.... WTF!?!

Whiskey

True, it takes eons to form oil, but since organisms die at the same rate basically, as they have for all time, more oil is formed at the same rate.

As far as why no new refineries; It's fact that environmental forces have prevented any new ones from being developed through heavy fines & taxes, and through outright bans. Even with oil-connected families (and then Mr. Cheney with Halliburton) in the White House for four terms running, they couldn't seem to break down the enviro-nazi barrier and get any refineries underway. There is PLENTY, and I mean PLENTY of money sitting in banks waiting to build new refineries, if we can get the likes of Pelosi and Boxer out of office.

Charles

 

[billfred]

Peak production has probably already been hit around 2005 at 87 million bopd. Currently the world demand is only around 84 or 85 million bopd. Why would you build more refineries for the same amount of oil.

To the west texas boy that says we continue to generate oil, your concept is almost correct except you left out about around 1bbls years of oil generation that was consumed in less than 100 yrs.

 

[RottenWillow]

We have to also factor in the long term impact of creating light crude via new technology, thermal depolymerization. It has already been proven possible, though not currently profitable, to make oil rather than hunt for it in the ground.

At some point the tech will improve, as it always does when there's potential profit to be made, and the cost of making crude will intersect with the rising prices of mined crude. When that happens, TD may begin to make a real impact on the global market.


Thermal depolymerization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Changing World Technologies, Inc. - Where can our solutions be used? - Overview

 

[kx250rider]

Peak production has probably already been hit around 2005 at 87 million bopd. Currently the world demand is only around 84 or 85 million bopd. Why would you build more refineries for the same amount of oil.

To the west texas boy that says we continue to generate oil, your concept is almost correct except you left out about around 1bbls years of oil generation that was consumed in less than 100 yrs.

There is a valid argument that you point out, how we have pulled out a huge amount since the Industrial Revolution, but there is still plenty of oil down there. My rebuttal to that argument is that we still have not even tried to find more reserves with all the taxes and environmental crap. We have new techonlogy to frac (a term used to locate oil & gas fields), and we're now able to zoom in on much smaller pockets of oil than ever before, when it was hit & miss. The good thing is that this new technology will run the prices down for the consumer, but the bad thing is that it can run an oil field worthless in a day, if nobody wants to lease a few acres to explore for drilling (the old way) . Tens of thousands of jobs were created, and billions of dollars made by land owners the old way. The land owner gets paid whether or not oil is struck, and they get a huge royalty when oil does get found. The new technology is a double-edged sword, I guess. My opinion is that by the time we ever get in danger of running out of oil, we'll have nuclear fusion down to a science so safe & cheap that nobody will even care about oil anymore, except to quiet a squeaky door hinge now & then.

The reason I said that "money is sitting in banks waiting" to build new refineries is exactly what you said, that there's no more oil to refine in larger volumes until we drill more. It's there, but so are Boxer & Pelosi. A stalemate unparalleled.

Charles

 

[redshirt27se]

Too hard to pinpoint right now, but I'd say somewhere between 1.5 years and 5 years. Demand is predicted to surpass supply by 2015, which is not going to be good. To put that into perspective, when gas prices were at their highest several years ago, demand still hadn't passed supply. If I had to be more specific, I'd say around the 4 year mark.

 

[Big Rick Rock]

I think the last and largest Oil deposit was found in the 60's. We haven't left much unexplored, we've looked for Oil in all of the accessible places... Unless the poles are hiding some black gold under their receding caps, we are due for some serious problems in the next 5-10yrs.



!

 

[kx250rider]

I think the last and largest Oil deposit was found in the 60's. We haven't left much unexplored, we've looked for Oil in all of the accessible places... Unless the poles are hiding some black gold under their receding caps, we are due for some serious problems in the next 5-10yrs.



!

That's what the people who wrote the peak oil scare want us to believe. But they used very selective facts, and left out many facts which contradict that whole theory. On a more philosophical note, the human race is a race of lazy survivors... When the oil resource proves to be too rare and expensive, we WILL figure something out. We just aren't going to bother until it happens.

Charles

 

[ledhead]

Considering Americans use 20 million barrels of oil a day. Considering we get most of our oil from
OPEC who hates us, and wants to use the money they earn from oil to back rogue dictators so
they can make nukes. I would say 200$ a barrel is in the near future.

 

[billfred]

What America has going for it and always will is technology leaders and lots of land.

Right now there is such and over abundance of Natural Gas that we could practically fuel our whole transportation needs whith the proper infrastructure. Check out PickensPlan not a big fan of boone but he is right on here.

Historically, oil and gas has been generated in tight source rocks (organic shales) and then migrated to reservoir rockes (porous limestone and sandstone). Now the industry has figured out a way to get the hydrocarbons directly from the shales. That is why you are seeing such a surplus in Natural Gas supplies. Historically, and on an energy equivelant basis, oil has traded at 6 x an MCF of gas. Right now it is trading at a record 20+ times the energy equivelant of Natural Gas. The time is now to move our energy consumption to Natural Gas and leave the oil dependance to China and India - they need it more.

In addition, the industry has just recently started producing oil in commercial amounts from these oil shales. Not shales that you are thinking where you dig it up, heat it and then get some nasty tar out of it that you have to refine the shit out of to get product. This is drilling to these source rocks (shales) and giving them large fracs to crack the shit out of the rocks releasing the oil to be produced conventially. Oil production in Texas has risen for the first time in nearly 40 yrs because of this technology change.

However, we are still probably at peak oil prodcution (the highest oil production) but we can get by on Natural Gas - it is nowhere near peak.

 

[kx250rider]

Oil production in Texas has risen for the first time in nearly 40 yrs because of this technology change.

However, we are still probably at peak oil prodcution (the highest oil production) but we can get by on Natural Gas - it is nowhere near peak.

Another good point... I happen to know that new gas leases are being signed at a rate to just about create an ink shortage! Particularly this is happening on former oil fields in the extreme south Texas area near Laredo. The down side is that gas wells yield their best for a couple months, then drop to about half for several years or a decade, before petering out. Good oil wells can go on for decades and decades at the same yield rate. There are some oil wells in South Central and Southwest Los Angeles, in fact, that have been producing for over 100 years.

Charles

 

[samoth]

we are due for some serious problems in the next 5-10yrs.

Scientists knew this decades ago, but BIGOIL's money and influence have never made it feasable for many people to study and R&D hydrogen or other alternatates outside of academia.

I think it's a political thing. The amount of cash and resources necessary to fund R&D (especially ITE), notwithstanding the changes to infrastructure and global everything, would cause major power/financial/economic/influence changes to any country charging ahead of the pack at full steam. That, and BIGOIL is still very profitable. Politicians don't really care about the future unless it involves their re-election... nor do CEOs or VC.

How long till we hit a $200 barrel?

Although it seems relatively transparent and easy to posit in the medium/long-term, I doubt everyone's going to get rich quick by trying to time the market.

 

[samoth]

I really don't think we'll see peak oil in our lifetimes, either.

Are country may not be very hyperopic, but we're not stupid. Society is not going to collapse and oil disappear in the next 5-10 years, although it will certainly be a major issue during the lifetimes of our children.

 

[RottenWillow]

What America has going for it and always will is technology leaders and lots of land.

Right now there is such and over abundance of Natural Gas that we could practically fuel our whole transportation needs whith the proper infrastructure. Check out PickensPlan not a big fan of boone but he is right on here.

Historically, oil and gas has been generated in tight source rocks (organic shales) and then migrated to reservoir rockes (porous limestone and sandstone). Now the industry has figured out a way to get the hydrocarbons directly from the shales. That is why you are seeing such a surplus in Natural Gas supplies. Historically, and on an energy equivelant basis, oil has traded at 6 x an MCF of gas. Right now it is trading at a record 20+ times the energy equivelant of Natural Gas. The time is now to move our energy consumption to Natural Gas and leave the oil dependance to China and India - they need it more.

In addition, the industry has just recently started producing oil in commercial amounts from these oil shales. Not shales that you are thinking where you dig it up, heat it and then get some nasty tar out of it that you have to refine the shit out of to get product. This is drilling to these source rocks (shales) and giving them large fracs to crack the shit out of the rocks releasing the oil to be produced conventially. Oil production in Texas has risen for the first time in nearly 40 yrs because of this technology change.

However, we are still probably at peak oil prodcution (the highest oil production) but we can get by on Natural Gas - it is nowhere near peak.

The Continental US has assloads of natural gas.

oh and I expect no one even remembers this:

DOE Hydrogen Program Home Page

 

[javaguru]

The Continental US has assloads of natural gas.

oh and I expect no one even remembers this:

DOE Hydrogen Program Home Page

Economics are what they are...its a shitload cheaper to mine coal as opposed to building nuclear plants. Just like its a shitload cheaper to purchase oil from OPEC...they know where their bread is buttered...they push the boundaries of oil production based on demands from the west.

Environmentalists and their movement hamstrings energy companies by tying up any use of natural resources as an environmental issue because it might potentially kill a few fish.

 

[billfred]

I really don't think we'll see peak oil in our lifetimes, either.

Are country may not be very hyperopic, but we're not stupid. Society is not going to collapse and oil disappear in the next 5-10 years, although it will certainly be a major issue during the lifetimes of our children.

Peak oil means that planet earth has maximized oil production. I am quite sure you will see it in your lifetime, if you have not already.

I does not mean we will run out of energy, we will just shift to more expensive ones.

 

[gotmilk]

We'll be in the low 100's by Christmas. When Isreal bombs the fuck out of Iran, we'll break thru the 150's. It will take a war or terrorist attack to break the 150's though...

 

[gotmilk]

I think the last and largest Oil deposit was found in the 60's. We haven't left much unexplored, we've looked for Oil in all of the accessible places... Unless the poles are hiding some black gold under their receding caps, we are due for some serious problems in the next 5-10yrs.



!

Cuba has an offshore oil field that is larger than Venezuela's reserves. Brazil found some major fields offshore that rival what Saudi Arabia has on land