A short war? I suspect not.

[HansNZ]

It is interesting to listen to American politicians, the American media, and the opinions of many Americans on this website. They are all taking about US forces going into Iraq, finishing the job and speculating about the occupation of that country.

This seems somewhat out of touch with reality. If you listen to the people in the region then this whole conflict is going to radicalise people. I suspect we will see pro-american governments in the region toppled left, right, and centre.

I suspect this war is going to esculate in unforseen ways. Even if Saddam himself is killed, that won't be the end, because there are going to be very nasty side-effects from this whole mis-adventure.

I think that Saddam has learned his lessons from the 1991 Gulf war and intends to follow a very different strategy. I suspect there will be a great deal of door to door fighting, and Guerilla tactics.

Iraq is not as isolated now as it was in 1991. As much as people in the region hate Sddam there is going to be sympahy for Iraq WHEN things start getting bogged down.

I also think that as much as Saddam is hated the American's agenda in the region is despised more by those who live there.

Outside the USA people feel that this is going to be a giant mess. It seems only in the US is there a widespread idea that the US is going to walk into Iraq, finish the job in a few weeks, everyone will be hugging US soldiers and George Bush will feel like the great conquering statesman.

What do other people think about this?

 

[havoc]

I think you're on the right track. peace

 

[the nature boy]

those guys are going to be surrendering by the tens of thousands. The morale of the troops is very very low

the republican guard will most likely fight to the death, I saw on the news there are execution squads that will shoot anyone who retreats.

However, the OCCUPATION of Iraq will take a long time.

 

[HansNZ]

those guys are going to be surrendering by the tens of thousands. The morale of the troops is very very low

the republican guard will most likely fight to the death, I saw on the news there are execution squads that will shoot anyone who retreats.

However, the OCCUPATION of Iraq will take a long time.

I think Saddam recognises that the bulk of his military will be of no use, and he is calculating this into his strategy. That is why it will be a war fought in the cities. The US will control the territory outside the cities quite quickly. But all the dead civilians from the protracted house to house battles is what is going to derail the US in the end.

 

[Y_lifter]

It seems only in the US is there a widespread idea that the US is going to walk into Iraq, finish the job in a few weeks, everyone will be hugging US soldiers and George Bush will feel like the great conquering statesman.

I have not seen or heard anyone say it will be quick as in weeks.
Even GW said last night it will not be quick but that the outcome is certain.
War is not pretty or fun but someone has to do it...

I have yet to hear an alternative approach other than giving him more time.

What is your Idea to resolve this, other than waiting 12 more years and adding more sanctions that don't work with dictators that don't care about thier people hans?

 

[catharsis]

long war???

Long war????? I think not. You kinda sound like those same people who said we will get our asses handed to us by the "battle hardned Iraqi Soldiers" during the first gulf war. "Iraq has been fighting wars for centuries and we don't know what we're getting ourselves into".....Blah Blah Blah,



How about when we were contiplating war with Afghanistan
People said "this will be our next Vietnam" , "Look what they did to Russia", "Afghanistan has been fighting for hundreds of years and are battle hardned and experienced". Blah Blah Blah again.




This will be like every other time, we will utterly smoke their ass!

 

[HansNZ]

[BI have yet to hear an alternative approach other giving him more time.

What is your Idea to resolve this, other than waiting 12 more years and adding more sanctions that don't work with dictators that don't care about thier people hans? [/B]

Weapons inspections were working. Whether they would have finished the job in another story. However while they were working war was unnecessary. That is why resolution 1441 does not authorise force. Hans Blix had not come back and said that he was unable to make progress. If he had done that then things would be different. He did not. That is why the majority of the security council would not support a US-UK-Spanish resolution and why these countries didn't put one up for a vote.

Secondly Iraq is not a major WMD threat - that is a claim made by the US government and its minions. You can believe it if you wish, I don't. If you watch the US media or listened to US politicians you'd swear it was some proven fact or even credible assertion.

You are right, sanctions don't work. 600,000 dead Iraqi kids and a dictator who is as much in power as ever is testiment to that. The only way to deal with Iraq is containment.

As for dictators who kill their own people - he does indeed do that. That doesn't justify foreigners coming in and killing more of his people. Western powers should be more mindful of the dictators they support and arm in the future so that they do not create more Saddam Husseins.

 

[MattTheSkywalker]

It is interesting to listen to American politicians, the American media, and the opinions of many Americans on this website. They are all taking about US forces going into Iraq, finishing the job and speculating about the occupation of that country.

This seems somewhat out of touch with reality. If you listen to the people in the region then this whole conflict is going to radicalise people. I suspect we will see pro-american governments in the region toppled left, right, and centre.

Who will it radicalize? This is a very general statement.

I suspect this war is going to esculate in unforseen ways. Even if Saddam himself is killed, that won't be the end, because there are going to be very nasty side-effects from this whole mis-adventure.

This too is very general. Be specific. otherwise it sound like America-bashing for the sake of doing so, rather than well-thought-out criticism.

I think that Saddam has learned his lessons from the 1991 Gulf war and intends to follow a very different strategy. I suspect there will be a great deal of door to door fighting, and Guerilla tactics.

It is not US Army doctrine to go door to door and clear eachbuilding. I did a lot of that when I was an Army Ranger andyou are right it is brutal. As such, Army doctrine is to flatten an entire city block with bombs, then clear it with troops. Much easier that way.

Iraq is not as isolated now as it was in 1991. As much as people in the region hate Sddam there is going to be sympahy for Iraq WHEN things start getting bogged down.

What is the consequence of this?

I also think that as much as Saddam is hated the American's agenda in the region is despised more by those who live there.

What is the consequence of this?

Outside the USA people feel that this is going to be a giant mess. It seems only in the US is there a widespread idea that the US is going to walk into Iraq, finish the job in a few weeks, everyone will be hugging US soldiers and George Bush will feel like the great conquering statesman.

What do other people think about this?

I see a quick decimation of opposing forces. The bogging down could ocme in the post-war time....that is the real challenge.

 

[The Ranger]

Let's look at their Air Force power.....Nil.
Naval....Nada
Ground to air missels...Scuds??
Ground Troops...Currently starving, and under motivated. Top officals are now defecting.
Door to door fighting....This means well trained, and equipted soliders, against handguns, AK's used by civvies with little or no training at all....

Let us not forget the Turkish Kurds, once it starts, they'll be sitting pretty in the oil fields.....

Total time for outcome....3 weeks or less.

Ranger

 

[catharsis]

As for dictators who kill their own people - he does indeed do that. That doesn't justify foreigners coming in and killing more of his people. Western powers should be more mindful of the dictators they support and arm in the future so that they do not create more Saddam Husseins.

Ahhh, so damnit we should've stayed out of WW2 and let the genocide continue. Should've stayed out of Bosnia as well.