A short war? I suspect not.

[primetime21]

a long war??? hahaha

this is what most anti-war people fail to realize:

first, the iraqi people hate hussein just as much as we do and many of the soldiers will flat surrender, and in fact many have already surrendered or have plans to surrender once the war begins. This comes from a friend of mine who worked in Iraq just a few months ago. These people are smarter than you think and know that life will be better without hussein.

two, the iraqi army, EVEN at full strength has no shot. Door to door combat?? yeah sure. there will be very few troops sent in, until the smart-weapons have completely wiped out much of the threat. Will the US loose troops?? of course. Does that suck big time?? 100 percent. But that is the price you have to pay.

three, other countries in the region have no balls. These people live in pverty as their rulers make billions. If they havent gotten pissed off already, what makes you think this will now? and what pro-us countries are there in the middle east? Israel (not a problem). The other nations arent going to help the US in anyway fight this war.. nor should they. Because in doing so it would cause problems.

Lets be real here folks, the same people saying that this war will be trouble said the EXACT same thing in the gulf war and said that "those afghany people have been through many wars and are really TOUGH!!!" You cant be tough when a missle from a ship 100 miles away is launching missles to within a few feet of its target.

The main problem i see, is that if iraq should attack israel AGAIN, israel may retaliate. That can be a problem. But i am guessing israel and the US have something worked out.

 

[jnuts]

Re: Re: Re: A short war? I suspect not.

I believe it is going to escalate in term of the Kurds, the Iranians, and the toppling of currently pro-american regimes such as the Saudis. The Israelis may become involved at some point. I also believe it will escalate in ways we haven't anticipated - the wild card.

"No plan survives first contact with the enemy."

Yep, quite possible that the unforseen will happen. With regards to Iran, you can count on them getting a little pissy and maybe trying to take advantange of the situation. There is a little bit of open source info on this at:

http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=b2vuls%248fs%241%40reader10.wxs.nl&output=gplain

The Isrealis very will could become involved. Especially if chem is used. Don't disagree with you.

While Pols and Planners try to anticipate the outcome, it is folly to assume that we can totally predict the future. We can predict short term effects fairly well, not long term effects / outcomes with regards to what will happen.

Nobody said this shit was easy.

Well that's similar to what I mean. I suspect 95% of the Iraqi forces will be captured or killed quite quickly. It is the messy stuff that follows which will breed the problems. I doubt there will be a clean conclusion to this conflict.

I don't disagree with you on this. Baghdad will become the Stalingrad of this century. Not a good prospect.

 

[HumorMe]

LOL, the journalist who wrote that is dreaming. If Helen Clarke genuinely supported this war she'd be committing political suicide. What she is doing is trying not to alienate the Aussies or Americans too much because she is coming under pressure from Washington which is threatening not to include NZ in a free trade agreement.

It's been mentioned before and will be mentioned again that Bush is doing this for the oil and American interests abroad.

If that's true then NZ is doing the same thing. Without free trade with Australia and the US and the luxuries that come with it, NZ would be screwed.

Why do you hate the US and its politics?

 

[Y_lifter]

12 years of Inspections have done a good job.
He still has Illegal weapons.

12 more years of inspections and he still would have them and probably more..

 

[HansNZ]

It's been mentioned before and will be mentioned again that Bush is doing this for the oil and American interests abroad.

If that's true then NZ is doing the same thing. Without free trade with Australia and the US and the luxuries that come with it, NZ would be screwed.

Why do you hate the US and its politics?

NZ isn't supporting the US in this war. Clark is simply attempting not to ruffle feathers. Her party has a pacifist base and would never allow her to let NZ become involved.

She is trying her best to salvage hope for a free-trade agreement by being obscure about where she stands. If it ever got to the point where NZ soldiers were shooting at Iraqis she'd be out of office.

 

[HansNZ]

12 years of Inspections have done a good job.
He still has Illegal weapons.

12 more years of inspections and he still would have them and probably more..

The inspections up until the US sabotaged them in 1998 did an EXCELLENT job. Saddam was 95% disarmed by these.

France said that if the current inspections were allowed to run their course and all of Saddam's weapons hadn't been accounted for it would have supported the war. Sadly the US has another agenda.

 

[atlantabiolab]

I see this war as a mixture of rational and irrational reasons, and understand that it is not a picture-perfect example of "good" politics, but an argument that I continue to hear is "we should not go to war, because civilians may/will be killed".

Is this a valid reason, in the context of this war? Leaving Saddam in power is to understand that the people will remain enslaved, all of them, and at the mercy and whim of an evil man, who in the past and present has commited atrocities towards men, women and children. To go to war is to attempt to liberate, and do not misconstrue this to mean "democratize" or "westernize" this country, which I do not believe is going to happen, from horrible oppression.

Is there a "right" to maintain slavery, murder, and torture, or is there a moral "right" to liberate? Even if some are killed, unintentionaly? Do those in Iraq, who wish to allow Saddam to remain in power, have the right to perpetuate despotism, to possibly keep themselves alive? Saddam kills individuals intentionally, for personal reasons. Going to war, which brings in context with it, death, does not, in this situation, have the intention of death, but violent excision of an evil regime, and death is a secondary effect.

We have intervened in foreign affairs too long and we are paying the price of meddling, but we have gone too far to pull back, and in this instance, killing a dictator is a valid rationale for war.

 

[HumorMe]

NZ isn't supporting the US in this war. Clark is simply attempting not to ruffle feathers. Her party has a pacifist base and would never allow her to let NZ become involved.

She is trying her best to salvage hope for a free-trade agreement by being obscure about where she stands. If it ever got to the point where NZ soldiers were shooting at Iraqis she'd be out of office.

Well, the article I posted said NZ had 1 whole ship and 1 recon plane there supporting the buildup in Iraq.

quoted from the article

"Her defence of Howard came just two weeks after New Zealand dispatched a naval warship and an Orion reconnaissance aircraft to join the military buildup around Iraq."

 

[TerraNoble]

It's been mentioned before and will be mentioned again that Bush is doing this for the oil and American interests abroad.

If that's true, then NZ is doing the same thing. Without free trade with Australia and the US and the luxuries that come with it, NZ would be screwed.

Why do you hate the US and its politics?

\

Lets be serious!
The NZ guy is just stating his own point of view in regard to the wasr and its consequences.

By disagreeing with most of you guys who support the war, that doessn't mean that he hates USA.

He seems an articulate person who brings solid arguments on the table regarding the outcome of the war.

As far as his sexuality goes , I do not agree with his choice ,but I also do not care as this should not be used as an argument in any debate.

Going back to the original topic, I will say that this will be a lot nastier than it was 12 years ago and it may bring more chaos than ever in the region.

Regardless of the duration of the war, the most DIFFICULT part will be the aftermath of the war as who is going to run the country or how long the US forces will be around or how the Arab worldis gonna swallow the US Army being injected in the middle of the Arab world.

Irak is a very divided country and it will be very difficult to come up with some sort of government that will satisfy all parts.

Kurds have their own agenda. Shiites have their own also.

It will be a total mess!!

 

[Y_lifter]

being obscure about where she stands

What a fine leader...