I think Pacquiao takes it. Cotto does not look the same since the Margarito fight. I've noticed that Cotto does not appear to have the same amount of explosive "snap" at the end of his punches. He still throws hard but lands with more of a "thud", that doesn't do the same amount of damage he once had. He looks too "tense" in the ring and throws every punch at full power. This is what causes him to always gas out at the end of fights. Cotto looked particulary tentitive in the middle of the Clottey fight (and it was due to more than the cut). I think that at some point in the early rounds, Cotto will "feel" Pacquiaos power and aggression and will mentally revert back to the Margarito fight.