Its taken a while to disect this game. On paper the numbers indicate it should be a close game. This is my take on the game.
When I look at PHL's resume I concentrate on 3 games since most of their games were played against mediocre teams with bad defenses. The three games are BAL, at Pitt, at WAS. In the BAL game FD's were even (19-19), BAL won TY 327-298, BAL won rush 113-98, BAL won pass 214-200, and BAL had 2 TO's. This was a BAL team that NE absolutely destroyed. NE won FD 18-8, NE won rush 144-77, NE won TY 314-124, NE won pass 170-47, BAL had 2 TO's. Both PHL and NE were destroyed by PITT in the regular season. When PHL played at WAS, WAS won FD 20-16, TY even, WAS won rush 88-67, PHL won pass 245-224.
What is the point here I am trying to make. Over the last couple of years Philadelphia has had a tendency to struggle against the better defensive teams in the league. Philly in my mind can beat the better defensive teams but they can't have a balanced offense. In other words, take a team like BAL, Philly can beat this team because the defense can shut down their one dimesional offense so the offense doesn't have to score much to win. Against NE, Philly will have to be able to put up points against NE in order to win.
Lets take a look at NE. NE this year went 11-3-2 ATS. This is pretty remarkable considering they are coming off a Super Bowl year. Ne by far has played the tougher schedule. the one game I like to take a look at is when they played BUF at home on the Sunday night game. This is when BUF was in the early stages of their hot streak. NE simply destroyed this team 29-6. Everyone talked about McGahee (Spelling?) how he would change things in this matchup and NE held Buf to 50 yds rushing. NE beat Indy twice this year, they beat BUF twice, NYJ twice, split with Pitt, killed BAL. They always find a way to win no matter what the circumstances. NE takes your strength and removes it from the game.
What are some of the intangibles for the game. I think the TO thing is a distraction. The players have to constantly answer this question instead of being asked questions like how can you compete with NE. Who cares if TO plays and if he plays he won't have any impact on the game. NE shutdown Marvin Harrison I am sure there won't be a problem shutting down TO at 70%.
Here are some of the things I see happening in the game:
1. NE will have at least one defensive TD.
2. McNabb will be sacked at least 6 times.
3. PHL receivers will be shutdown.
4. Dillon will have 90 yds rushing
5. Reid early in this game will become pass happy
The three factors you must always look at when picking playoff games and SB. The QB, defense, and head coach. I give NE the lean in all areas. This is a two week SB and two week SB's tend to be blowouts. LAst year was a two week SB and it was a close game with the fav winning but not covering. this is extremely rare and the probability of it happening two years in a row are low.
Here is my breakdown for scoring:
PHL: One offensive touchdown, two FG's
NE: Two offensive TD's, One defensive TD, 3 FG's
My prediction for SB XXXIX:
NE 30-13 over PHL
GL
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