My opinion:
Big belly .... over 40 ....
(1) Distended abs (gravity) and weakened lower back muscles.
(2) High body fat and accumulated water due to diet high in fast carbos - and
(3) Shift in metabolism/hormone balance.
Actions to take:
(1) Upper/lower ab routine and lower back strengthening - Caution - Don't build the abs.
(2) Simple reduction to elimination of fast carbs - no sugars, fruit, and flour products.
(3) #2 will begin a positive shift. Blood test will reveal hormone change. Take supplemental action to bring each one back into range.
Energy levels will go up. Mood will become positive. Waist line will shrink. Overall body tone will improve. This can result in large weight loss as your first dump water, then fat stores.
Caution - There can be muscle loss, especially in shoulder area. Drs. can easliy prescribe testo when hormones are out of balance. Many insurance plans will pay when there is a "plan" and a Doc involved.