Razorguns said:
Weak dollar helps banks.
Guess who the USG is bailing out. Bank debt becomes very attractive to foreigners when the dollar is low.
2 and 2 kids. Banks have your money. Banks own you.
r
You've forgetting something fundamental about what banks do: they lend money. If the bank lent you $1,000,000 in 2000 and the loan is expected to be paid back in 2010, the dollars the bank is receiving in interest payments are worth
less than they were when the bank initially underwrote the loan. All else equal, lenders want their currency to STRENGTHEN, while the
debtors want the currency in which they borrowed to depreciate. This is Finance 101.
Also, when you say "bank debt becomes more attractive" what data are you basing this on? My clients are the largest private equity and hedge funds in the world and they underwrite "bank debt" (i.e. 1st Lien, 2nd Lien, TL A, TL B) in addition to sub-debt and mezzanine. Deal flow into the market for bank debt SUCKS right now. The 2nd lien market COMPLETELY evaporated and what deals are getting done are going to the guys in mezzanine and high yield (this ain't "bank debt"). There's been no influx of capital into this market, foreign or otherwise, beyond people like my clients cleaning up the balance sheets of Citigroup, Merrill, Lehman, etc. and a lot of that was cash sitting on the sidelines, not fresh money.