Economic Derpression of 2001

[Shrebly]

If I wanted your opinion I would have asked for it after your last account was cancelled.

Baa bye Bill Clinton...

 

[WODIN]

The only thing that I know for sure is that under a fiat money system that the U.S. has now, the dollar WILL eventually become worthless and we will go bankrupt...10,20, 50 years who knows, but it will happen

Our monitary system is not a fiat one. The only time in the nations history that a fiat currency existed was during the colonial expansion before the revolutionary war. Our monitary system is based on debt balancing.

 

[Shrebly]

There goes Wodin [wooooodin] and his big brain again.

 

[Mdguy]

Our monitary system is not a fiat one. The only time in the nations history that a fiat currency existed was during the colonial expansion before the revolutionary war. Our monitary system is based on debt balancing.

Thanks for the correction...I meant to type " fractional reserve banking system" which is debt based and essentially creates money out of thin air backed by nothing, but fiat came out for some reason

 

[WODIN]

I totally agree with you that this system is about to blow its proverbial cork.

 

[Mdguy]

Yeah, its a matter of time-actually past history proves this to be inevitable. Just be mentally prepared for it if it does happen..and have the 3 g's handy--guns, gold, and gonads

 

[WODIN]

already there bro.

 

[Mdguy]

I forgot the 4th G- God damn Alzheimer's....

Looks like we're on the same page...I really don't want to finish the book to see the ending though

 

[ceo]

History of the Modern Bear Market (DJIA)

Beginning of Bear:/Length:/%Decline(peak to trough):/ 12 mo. increase after lowest pt:

May 1946 11.8 mos. -23.2% +14.8%
Apr 1956 18.8 mos. -19.4% +22.6%
Dec 1961 6.5 mos. -27.1% +24.4%
Feb 1966 8.0 mos. -25.2% +20.2%
Dec 1968 17.9 mos. -35.9% +30.1%
Jan 1973 23.1 mos. -45.1% +29.7%
Sep 1976 17.5 mos. -26.9% +7.9%
Apr 1981 15.7 mos. -24.1% +34.3%
Aug 1987 1.8 mos. -36.1% +18.6%
July 1990 2.9 mos. -21.2% +20.7%
AVERAGE: 12.4 mos. -28.4% +22.3%
Source: 2000 Dow Jones & Company

-Bear Markets are part of a normal cyclical market
-Every Bear Market has always ended
-The rally following the lows in a Bear Market have never occurred in a good news environment, and the rallies are always viewed with suspicion

 

[ceo]

Down Years are Often Followed by Up Years

A retrospective of down markets during the past 50 years (1950-2000)

1953 -1.0%
1954 +52.6%
1957 -10.8%
1958 +43.4%
1962 -8.7%
1963 +22.8%
1966 -10.1%
1967 +24.0%
1969 -8.5%
1970 +4.0%
1973 -14.7%
1974 -26.5%
1975 +37.2%
1977 -7.2%
1978 +6.6%
1981 -4.9%
1982 +21.4%
1990 -3.2%
1991 +30.5%
2000 -9.1%
Based on the Standars & Poor's 500 stock index (S&P 500), an unmanaged index used as a general measure of market performance.
Source: Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 2001 Yearbook, Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Based on copyrighted works by Ibbotson and Sinquefield.

-9 out of 10 markets through 1999 have been followed by positive returns the next year
-Average return in a down year was -9.6%
-Average return in an up year following a down year was +26.9%