OK, let's play this out in two scenarios.
Scenario one: Blueta, having never interacted with ATW in real life, having not even interacted with him on the internet in years, who has a track record of gross miscalculations of character somehow hits it on the button. ATW is Briana, having completely fooled three completely rational people who have interacted with him recently and in multiple settings.
Scenario two: Blueta is wrong, the people who know him better and have had a chance to get a recent read that includes body language, voice inflections and general conversation are right.
Which one sounds more like it is cut from reality?
No one is saying we know him REALLY well, or that we know all his secrets. I'm just saying I thiiiiink we have a bit more of an inside track than you.