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b0und
New member
The outlook for 2008, potential recession in the US, some say probable.
World demand should still be strong (I'm in resources) so the outlook overall is still positive.
But that's just what is expected.
What about about the unexpected? The X-factor.
Nobody saw 9/11 coming, nobody saw the Asian financial crisis coming and not that many people expected the current mortgage problems.
Here are some worst case scenarios that could hit us pretty damn hard, economically or otherwise:
Category 9 earthquake hits Tokyo, Japan
Widespread destruction, enormous fire, the Tokyo fire department does not have enough firetrucks and equipment, parts of old Tokyo are completely unaccessible to vehicles. +100,000 deaths, damage bill >US$5 trillion. Japanese banks and investors withdraw trillions of funds and investments from overseas, resulting in world recession. At least rebuilding phases stimulate growth.
Tokyo is overdue for a big one...
Nuclear war in the middle east
Fundamentalist Jews storm the Al Aqsa mosque, damage the dome of ascension, want to tear down the mosque and rebuild the temple. Israeli security forces do not stop them, or do too little too late. Outrage among Muslims world wide. A nuclear bomb hits Tel Aviv, Iran is blamed, but denies attack. China and Russia warn Israel against attacking Iran, but Israel backed by the US ignores them. Massive nuclear retaliation against Iran and Syria, Iran is almost completely destroyed. Oil price skyrockets to US$1000 per barrel, world recession. Political and economic stability are fucked for the next 30 years.
War between China and the US over Taiwan
Pro-independence forces in Taiwan gain greater power and become emboldened. Despite US warnings not to, they declare formal independence from China for Taiwan. China is badly pissed off and attacks Taiwan, the US is hesitant but comes to Taiwans assistance. Naval battles, severe military losses on both sides, military stalemate, neither country wants to escalate to a nuclear war, too much to loose. Russia warns the US to settle with China or it will enter the fray on China's side. War has popular support in China, but not in the US. US withdraws after negotiated terms that favour China, Taiwan is absorbed back into China over a 2 year period. The US is politically and militarily humiliated and no longer the worlds super power.
All out nuclear war between Pakistan and India
Extremist forces gain control in Pakistan, including control of the nukes. Inability to govern or even stabilize their country leads them to their only political path - blame everything on America and India. Support for terrorism and outright attacks on India increase until India has enough and makes military incursions into Pakistani controlled Kashmir. Nuclear attack by Pakistan follows, nuclear retaliation by India. Southern Asia is fucked for the next 50 years.
There are a few more scenarios that I can think of, but I have scared myself enough for now. Live long and prosper y'all.
b0und (stared into the crystal ball a little too long)
World demand should still be strong (I'm in resources) so the outlook overall is still positive.
But that's just what is expected.
What about about the unexpected? The X-factor.
Nobody saw 9/11 coming, nobody saw the Asian financial crisis coming and not that many people expected the current mortgage problems.
Here are some worst case scenarios that could hit us pretty damn hard, economically or otherwise:
Category 9 earthquake hits Tokyo, Japan
Widespread destruction, enormous fire, the Tokyo fire department does not have enough firetrucks and equipment, parts of old Tokyo are completely unaccessible to vehicles. +100,000 deaths, damage bill >US$5 trillion. Japanese banks and investors withdraw trillions of funds and investments from overseas, resulting in world recession. At least rebuilding phases stimulate growth.
Tokyo is overdue for a big one...
Nuclear war in the middle east
Fundamentalist Jews storm the Al Aqsa mosque, damage the dome of ascension, want to tear down the mosque and rebuild the temple. Israeli security forces do not stop them, or do too little too late. Outrage among Muslims world wide. A nuclear bomb hits Tel Aviv, Iran is blamed, but denies attack. China and Russia warn Israel against attacking Iran, but Israel backed by the US ignores them. Massive nuclear retaliation against Iran and Syria, Iran is almost completely destroyed. Oil price skyrockets to US$1000 per barrel, world recession. Political and economic stability are fucked for the next 30 years.
War between China and the US over Taiwan
Pro-independence forces in Taiwan gain greater power and become emboldened. Despite US warnings not to, they declare formal independence from China for Taiwan. China is badly pissed off and attacks Taiwan, the US is hesitant but comes to Taiwans assistance. Naval battles, severe military losses on both sides, military stalemate, neither country wants to escalate to a nuclear war, too much to loose. Russia warns the US to settle with China or it will enter the fray on China's side. War has popular support in China, but not in the US. US withdraws after negotiated terms that favour China, Taiwan is absorbed back into China over a 2 year period. The US is politically and militarily humiliated and no longer the worlds super power.
All out nuclear war between Pakistan and India
Extremist forces gain control in Pakistan, including control of the nukes. Inability to govern or even stabilize their country leads them to their only political path - blame everything on America and India. Support for terrorism and outright attacks on India increase until India has enough and makes military incursions into Pakistani controlled Kashmir. Nuclear attack by Pakistan follows, nuclear retaliation by India. Southern Asia is fucked for the next 50 years.
There are a few more scenarios that I can think of, but I have scared myself enough for now. Live long and prosper y'all.
b0und (stared into the crystal ball a little too long)
