I have been hearing 10% being floated around the last few days from various sources! If it gets confirmed to 10% or higher things are going to get really ugly!
Sars death rate 'higher'
BBC
Saturday, 26 April, 2003, 06:04 GMT 07:04 UK
Sars has spread to 26 countries worldwide
The death rate for Sars could be significantly higher than previously thought, an expert study into the pneumonia-like virus is expected to suggest.
The research by a British scientist, due to be published in a medical journal next week, is expected to say the virus could kill between 8% and 15% - or one in seven - of those infected.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently predicting a death rate of 5% to 6% and has insisted the virus could still be beaten if countries worked together to stop it from spreading.
The WHO said its estimate was more reliable because it had looked at infections around the world, instead of only looking at cases in a specific area.
Latest figures show that Sars has infected an estimated 4,649 people in 26 countries around the world. So far 275 people have died, with most sufferers making a full recovery.
Higher death rates
The new research based on the study of the 1400 or so cases in Hong Kong, was carried out by Professor Roy Anderson at Imperial College London, one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases.
He analysed the spread of Sars in Hong Kong, where thousands have been infected and 115 people have died so far.
KNOWN DEATH TOLL
Mainland China: 115
Hong Kong: 116
Singapore: 19
Canada: 19
Vietnam: 5
Thailand: 2
Malaysia: 2
Philippines: 2
Source: WHO/ local health authorities
Map: Global overview
Timeline
He calculated that between 8% and 15% of those who contract Sars will die.
His research also found that Sars remains infectious much longer than other viruses.
His estimates contrast with the 4% mortality rate originally put forward by the WHO.
WHO officials acknowledged on Friday that the Sars mortality rate had increased slightly in recent weeks.
David Heymann, its executive director of communicable diseases, said the mortality rate had now risen to between 5% and 6%.
Speaking earlier, he said Sars could still be stopped if countries worked together to stop it from spreading.
"We have a chance, we believe, to stop this disease if we all work together."
But he added that the virus could spread out of control if it reaches developing countries, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, where healthcare systems would struggle to cope.
"What is important is for all countries to participate and to help prevent it getting in a place where it would be very difficult to stop it," said Dr Heymann.
On the positive side the study found it was relatively hard to transmit the virus from person to person.
Controlling Sars
Other WHO officials said there was now enough information on the disease and how it is transmitted to stop it from spreading further.
"We believe we know enough about this disease and transmission that there is a chance to control the disease and deal with it in an effective way," said Dr Mike Ryan, co-ordinator of the WHO's global alert and response network.
Of the 26 countries that had seen Sars cases, 23 have contained it well, according to the WHO.
Officials have also taken comfort that it has not spread as easily as other viruses, such as influenza.
"It hasn't spread like wildfire in the countries to which it has arrived," said Dr Ryan.
However, Dr John Hubley a lecturer in health promotion at Leeds Metropolitan University, said he felt Sars had the potential to wreak "absolute destruction."
'Recovering well'
"Though it's too early to say for sure what the impact of Sars will be, it is certainly far more contagious than Aids and the course of infection is much quicker," he said.
But Dr Ryan said: "At the beginning of the Aids epidemic we were dealing with a disease that was 100% fatal, with Sars that is not the case. The vast majority of people with it recover well."
In the UK, public health minister Hazel Blears insisted the government's response to Sars had been "proportionate, responsible and effective."
She dismissed calls from the Conservatives Party for stricter controls on travellers.
"In this situation we need to act responsibly we don't need to stoke up panic," she said.
There have been six probable cases of the virus in the UK, but no deaths.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2977035.stm