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SARS Outbreak In UK 'Inevitable'

  • Thread starter Thread starter ariolanine
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Dan! I thought you would find this of some interest!

By Frank Urquhart and Paul Gallagher
4-25-3

An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is inevitable in Britain and will stretch NHS resources to breaking point, the country's leading microbiology expert warned yesterday.

Professor Hugh Pennington, of Aberdeen University, said health officials would be forced to implement emergency plans drawn up to deal with a bio-terrorism attack to tackle the impending crisis.

"It will get about and will be with us for the foreseeable future," Prof Pennington told The Scotsman. "We have to prepare for it to come."

He added that even a small outbreak of the disease would cause "mayhem" in the National Health Service, as entire intensive care units would be devoted to treating SARS sufferers.

As China began implementing draconian quarantine measures to contain the spread of the disease yesterday, Dr Liam Fox, the shadow health secretary, described the UK government?s response to the threat of an outbreak as "feeble, complacent and irresponsible".

Dr Fox called for SARS to be classified a notifiable disease under the Public Health Act, giving officials the power to force patients to receive treatment and ensure others were not exposed to the virus.

He said: "All around the world, SARS is causing immense alarm. Here, on the other hand, ministers? conduct would make people think that nothing serious is going on.

"The only sensible way for the government to proceed is to make SARS a notifiable disease."

One of the world?s leading experts warned yesterday that unless the virus is dealt with quickly, a second - and larger - wave of cases could emerge.

Dr Donald S Burke, writing in The Scotsman today, said: "Epidemic-control efforts should not simply be maintained, but doubled, and redoubled again."

Four more SARS deaths were reported in the Chinese capital of Beijing yesterday, and authorities have sealed off entire villages, along with the People?s Hospital of Beijing University, where more than 100 infected patients are being treated.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the flu-like virus has killed more than 260 people and infected more than 4,500 worldwide after being spread from Asia by airline passengers. The organisation has advised travellers to avoid visiting Toronto, in Canada, Hong Kong, Beijing and the Guangdong and Shanxi provinces of China.

Economists at the World Bank said the impact of the SARS virus, along with the aftermath of war in Iraq, could knock almost one-sixth of a per cent off economic growth in Asia this year.

The Canadian government strongly protested to the World Health Organisation yesterday for advising travellers to avoid Toronto, the scene of the worst SARS outbreak outside Asia, with 16 fatalities.

"There is no evidence of casual transmission of the disease in Toronto," said Dr Paul Gully, a Canadian government health officer. "We challenge the WHO?s assertion that Toronto is an unsafe place to visit."

So far, only six suspected cases have been found in Britain, none of which has been fatal. All of the cases involved patients who contracted the virus overseas, but it emerged yesterday that a Thai woman in hospital in Bangkok with suspected SARS may have contracted the virus in London.

During a recent visit to Britain, She was in contact with a Chinese businessman who may have passed on the virus.

Health officials said 140 children from Hong Kong and China, quarantined on the Isle of Wight a week ago, have so far shown no sign of the illness.


Prof Pennington, Scotland?s leading microbiologist, who led the investigation into the E coli 0157 outbreak in Wishaw, said the quarantine measures in China and elsewhere were not sufficient to prevent SARS spreading around the globe, and he expected a significant outbreak in Britain within months.


"When it does come - even though the number of cases are small - it might well create mayhem because it will mean that a large chunk of a hospital will have to dedicate itself to SARS at the expense of ordinary run-of-the-mill activity," he said.

SARS was first detected in southern China and has spread to more than 20 countries.

Symptoms are similar to pneumonia, with sufferers complaining of coughing, raging temperatures and sore throats. There is no cure and the mortality rate is between 5 and 6 per cent.

http://www.thescotsman.co.uk/index.cfm?id=471622003
 
gymrat said:
Man i'm glad I live in Canada...oh wait...shit!

lol that's what people were saying in Hong Kong about Mainland China a couple of months ago!


Canada fights travel warning


Toronto is suffering as a result of the travel warning, Chretien says
Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien has thrown his weight behind efforts to get a World Health Organization travel warning withdrawn.
Mr Chretien told journalists the WHO had come to the "wrong conclusion" when it advised travellers to avoid Toronto, Canada's largest city.

He insisted the city was safe and announced the cabinet would meet there on Tuesday - rather than in the capital, Ottawa - "to demonstrate in a very public way our commitment to the people of Toronto."

Under intense pressure from Canada, the WHO has been standing firm and refusing to lift its advisory so far.

But according to Canadian officials, the Geneva-based body has agreed to review the situation next week.

Friday saw three more deaths from Sars in Toronto, bringing the total there to 19. There are more than 250 probable or suspected cases of the viruses.

'Contained'

Mr Chretien said he had talked to WHO chief Gro Harlem Brundtland on Friday.

He was speaking after he flying back from a week's holiday, amid domestic criticism for being away during the crisis and failing to prevent the WHO warning.

"The city of Toronto is suffering today... We believe that Toronto is a good place to visit and it is a safe city," adding that the outbreak "seems to be quite contained".

We were quite frankly sandbagged by the WHO

Ontario Premier Ernie Eves

In further efforts to reassure people that the city is safe, he promised to spend a night in a hotel there and that he and his wife would fly to Toronto with national carrier Air Canada later this week for a dinner.

He promised that the government would contribute towards a marketing campaign for Toronto, but he did not mention any further economic aid for the city.

Economic ills

Canada has criticised the WHO, saying it imposed the travel warning on Wednesday for political reasons, and insisted the Sars outbreak was coming under control.

Canadian experts argued that the number of confirmed and suspected cases was far lower than in China and Hong Kong.


"They're scaring the world more than they scare Toronto."
Erin Green, Toronto


In pictures


Toronto is fighting for its reputation and its economic health after the WHO warning put the city virtually off limits for many travellers.

The number of visitors to Toronto has plummeted. Several conventions have been cancelled and hotels and restaurants are suffering.

"We were quite frankly sandbagged by the WHO," said Ontario Premier Ernie Eves.

Toronto officials said that while new cases were reported last weekend among health workers, the illness was not spreading to the broader community.

"The outbreak will be over when 20 days have elapsed with no new cases," said Sheela Barsur, Toronto's medical officer.

"It's been about a week so far, at least, since we've had a new case in the community. So in my view the clock is already ticking on the 20 days."
 
danielson, it was nice knowing you. once you pass, i will pour a little malt liqour out for you.

RIP, man.
 
this ain't good because

a) i developed a lil coufgh today and have been feeling hot. not breathing difficulties of late, i am wearing a jumper in a hot room and the cough has now gone. but im paranoid and these are paranoid times

b) more importantly, if a mass outbreak of SARS takes place, im likely to be in the epicentre of it and at a moderate-high exposure risk depending on how good the UK is at implementing barrier nursing (it isnt good)




poink if i die i'm coming back to haunt you man......a centre-left ghost, its your worst nightmare come true
 
danielson said:
this ain't good because

a) i developed a lil coufgh today and have been feeling hot. not breathing difficulties of late, i am wearing a jumper in a hot room and the cough has now gone. but im paranoid and these are paranoid times

b) more importantly, if a mass outbreak of SARS takes place, im likely to be in the epicentre of it and at a moderate-high exposure risk depending on how good the UK is at implementing barrier nursing (it isnt good)




poink if i die i'm coming back to haunt you man......a centre-left ghost, its your worst nightmare come true

Yikes! SARS is no joke, even though putting humour in it makes it less "Spooky" Again who knows how all this will lead but at the very least it is a "Big" problem! The shit they are doing in China, I never thought I would see in my lifetime! Roundups, Massive Quarantines etc! Panic or not I don't want it to spread and have to deal with that here! Not to mention the Economic damage around the world!
 
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it serious shit and people are playing it off as nothing that serious.....we are in the lag phase of the dsease, wait until the new cases pile up!

they need to be more cautious!
 
I have been hearing 10% being floated around the last few days from various sources! If it gets confirmed to 10% or higher things are going to get really ugly!

Sars death rate 'higher'

BBC
Saturday, 26 April, 2003, 06:04 GMT 07:04 UK

Sars has spread to 26 countries worldwide
The death rate for Sars could be significantly higher than previously thought, an expert study into the pneumonia-like virus is expected to suggest.
The research by a British scientist, due to be published in a medical journal next week, is expected to say the virus could kill between 8% and 15% - or one in seven - of those infected.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently predicting a death rate of 5% to 6% and has insisted the virus could still be beaten if countries worked together to stop it from spreading.

The WHO said its estimate was more reliable because it had looked at infections around the world, instead of only looking at cases in a specific area.

Latest figures show that Sars has infected an estimated 4,649 people in 26 countries around the world. So far 275 people have died, with most sufferers making a full recovery.

Higher death rates

The new research based on the study of the 1400 or so cases in Hong Kong, was carried out by Professor Roy Anderson at Imperial College London, one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases.

He analysed the spread of Sars in Hong Kong, where thousands have been infected and 115 people have died so far.

KNOWN DEATH TOLL
Mainland China: 115
Hong Kong: 116
Singapore: 19
Canada: 19
Vietnam: 5
Thailand: 2
Malaysia: 2
Philippines: 2
Source: WHO/ local health authorities
Map: Global overview
Timeline

He calculated that between 8% and 15% of those who contract Sars will die.

His research also found that Sars remains infectious much longer than other viruses.

His estimates contrast with the 4% mortality rate originally put forward by the WHO.

WHO officials acknowledged on Friday that the Sars mortality rate had increased slightly in recent weeks.

David Heymann, its executive director of communicable diseases, said the mortality rate had now risen to between 5% and 6%.

Speaking earlier, he said Sars could still be stopped if countries worked together to stop it from spreading.

"We have a chance, we believe, to stop this disease if we all work together."

But he added that the virus could spread out of control if it reaches developing countries, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, where healthcare systems would struggle to cope.

"What is important is for all countries to participate and to help prevent it getting in a place where it would be very difficult to stop it," said Dr Heymann.

On the positive side the study found it was relatively hard to transmit the virus from person to person.

Controlling Sars

Other WHO officials said there was now enough information on the disease and how it is transmitted to stop it from spreading further.

"We believe we know enough about this disease and transmission that there is a chance to control the disease and deal with it in an effective way," said Dr Mike Ryan, co-ordinator of the WHO's global alert and response network.

Of the 26 countries that had seen Sars cases, 23 have contained it well, according to the WHO.

Officials have also taken comfort that it has not spread as easily as other viruses, such as influenza.

"It hasn't spread like wildfire in the countries to which it has arrived," said Dr Ryan.

However, Dr John Hubley a lecturer in health promotion at Leeds Metropolitan University, said he felt Sars had the potential to wreak "absolute destruction."

'Recovering well'

"Though it's too early to say for sure what the impact of Sars will be, it is certainly far more contagious than Aids and the course of infection is much quicker," he said.

But Dr Ryan said: "At the beginning of the Aids epidemic we were dealing with a disease that was 100% fatal, with Sars that is not the case. The vast majority of people with it recover well."

In the UK, public health minister Hazel Blears insisted the government's response to Sars had been "proportionate, responsible and effective."

She dismissed calls from the Conservatives Party for stricter controls on travellers.

"In this situation we need to act responsibly we don't need to stoke up panic," she said.

There have been six probable cases of the virus in the UK, but no deaths.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2977035.stm
 
plornive said:
Japan and Thailand have prevented outbreaks so far, I think.

So far it seems, but Thailand has had deaths! The Philippines and Taiwans are just starting!

Over 1,000 Quarantined
In Taiwan Hospital
By Benjamin Kang Lim
4-25-4

BEIJING (Reuters) - The Philippines reported its first deaths from SARS on Friday and authorities in Taiwan quarantined over 1,000 doctors, nurses and patients in a hospital to halt the spread of the deadly flu-like disease.

A World Health Organization official said SARS could become a horrifying epidemic if it spread in China's provinces or in nations like India and Bangladesh, where people live cheek by jowl and medical facilities are poor.

"There will be various countries in the world where we would be really concerned because we don't think they have the capacity to stem the tide once it is introduced," WHO official Wolfgang Preiser told reporters in Shanghai.

"It may have happened already. We don't know."
SARS, a respiratory infection for which there is no known cure and which has a mortality rate of about six percent, has killed at least 276 people and infected about 4,800 in 25 nations.

It has caused widespread alarm in mainland China and in Hong Kong, each of which has reported 115 deaths.

The Philippines reported its first two deaths from the virus on Friday, joining China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand as countries with SARS fatalities.

Health Secretary Manuel Dayrit said the Philippine dead were a nursing assistant visiting home from Toronto and her father.

The disease is spread by droplets from sneezing and coughing but may also be transmitted by touching contaminated objects such as elevator buttons.

Taiwan authorities sealed the Taipei Municipal Ho Ping Hospital on Thursday after more than 25 suspected SARS cases were discovered and more than 1,100 doctors, nurses, patients and visitors will have to stay there for up to two weeks.
 
i'm not worried too much about it, because the only people have had any issues with it are those who have immunodeficiency issues. ie those with cancer, aids, and the elderly.
 
p0ink said:
i'm not worried too much about it, because the only people have had any issues with it are those who have immunodeficiency issues. ie those with cancer, aids, and the elderly.

Point taken, but there seems to be a lot of young healthy people dying from SARS lately! It is mutating rapidly so how deadly it will become is up to Mother Mature!


SARS claims 28-year-old man, youngest victim in HK, death toll now at 121

First created :
26 April 2003 1452 hrs (SST) 0652 hrs (GMT)

A 28-year-old man has become the youngest fatality from the SARS virus in Hong Kong, health officials confirmed on Saturday.

The victim, an engineer with no history of chronic illness, was a resident of the Amoy Gardens housing estate, one of the initial centres of the outbreak in the city, said a spokeswoman from the Department of Health.

Advertisement


The other victims were aged between 38 and 70.

A total of 121 people have now died in Hong Kong from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and 1,527 confirmed cases have been recorded, according to a statement
from the Department of Health on Saturday.

That statement also reported six new SARS deaths, including that of the 28-year-old engineer, and 17 new cases.

It reported that a further 18 patients had recovered, bringing the total number of discharged patients to 632.

To rein in the spread of SARS, Hong Kong is expanding temperature screening for travellers at all land and sea border checkpoints with China.

The government says any suspect cases will be referred to hospitals for further management.

Random temperature checks are already in place at the Lo Wu border crossing.

Authorities say they will install infrared thermal scanning at all checkpoints with China.

Meanwhile reports said Hong Kong lawmakers are to vote next month on whether embattled chief executive Tung Chee-hwa should resign over his perceived poor handling of the SARS outbreak.

According to the South China Morning Post, independent lawmaker Albert Chan is to move a non-binding motion on May 14 calling for Mr Tung to step down.

The motion is not expected to succeed as it has yet to receive support from major political parties.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/38397/1/.html
 
http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/daily/2003/Apr-24-Thu-2003/news/news3.html

Gag order for EMS crews on suspected SARS calls


By KAREN IWAMOTO/ West Hawaii Today


The state Department of Health (DOH) issued an SARS update Tuesday instructing emergency medical service personnel not to communicate possible SARS cases over medicom radios.

The update instructs EMS personnel to use a cell phone or landline when discussing possible SARS cases.

Ambulance drivers typically use VHS UHS radios, a line of open communication that anyone who owns a scanner can hear.

"We know the public monitors our communications," said Donna Maiava, director of DOH's emergency branch. "For an ambulance driver to communicate over the radio that they have a possible SARS case, far from making the public feel safe, will raise the anxiety level of the public unnecessarily.

"There is no way for the ambulance driver to know for sure, without an X - ray and all that, that it is indeed SARS," Maiava said.

Global health officials Wednesday warned travelers to avoid Toronto - a warning Canadian officials are strongly challenging for fear of ruining the visitor industry.

But Maiava said issuing the update had no connection to Hawaii's visitor industry.

"That wasn't even discussed at our meetings," she said. "This has nothing to do with tourism. Our concern is public safety."

Health care providers currently are required to report to DOH any suspected SARS cases.

There are five suspected SARS cases in Hawaii - three on Maui and two on Oahu. None of the cases have been fatal and none of the patients have shown severe symptoms, DOH has reported.
 
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