I think that you are making this too complicated. This is about the 3rd post on this cycle. I know you want to do it right and thats commendable, but at some point you have to realize that everyone is going to have different opinions and that you will have to make the final call.
I think that the first one you proposed is fine, yeah, it is a bit on the high side, but you have done high amounts before, so you know what to expect. And it is not on the ridiculous high side like some of your earlier thoughts for this cycle. I think by trying to add prop to this you are just making it needlessly complex, but its fine.
Just pick something and hit the weights.