Oil feel below $94.00 a barrel,now how long before the price adjusts?

[billfred]

True

Yeah but here is the deal, an average declines in production at about 10% per year. We now produce 85 million bbls oil per day and have been doing so since 2005 despite the industry pooring in trillions in capital investments.

That means our existing fields will decline in production by 8.5 million bbls a day on average. There simply is just not enough rigs, pipe or steal around to make up that decline.

Demand destruction and alternative energies are the only thing that is going to keep you from seeing $200 oil in the next few years.

 

[goin on 4T]

I just don't agree with that and I am too sick to try to write anything that would make any sense right now.

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

Grump:
Very true and just think with all the automakers scrambling to make autos even lighter they are using even more oil in the plactics and the composites they will be using in the future...

Well even if we had a pill that would run our transportation, we still need fertilizer, plastic etc etc etc. A long term solution is we need less of everything not more, alternative fuels will be great, I fill my Navigator 3 times a week just because I can.

 

[goin on 4T]

I fill my Navigator 3 times a week just because I can.

hehe

 

[Razorguns]

supply ... demand.... supply ... demand.

speculators are like auction bidders -- but they only work off supply and demand.

Imagine an ebay with 10,000 xbox auctions. Now next week -- there are 10 xbox auction. What do you think the auction bidders will do with the auction prices?

Public Schools shoudl teach this shit early on.

r

 

[Creepusmaximus]

Well even if we had a pill that would run our transportation, we still need fertilizer, plastic etc etc etc. A long term solution is we need less of everything not more, alternative fuels will be great, I fill my Navigator 3 times a week just because I can.

The main use f oil is for transportation. Plastics etc make up a very small %. Coal can also be liquidified and from what I have read it's profitable as long as oil is over $50 a barrel. We won't run out of coal anytime soon.

 

[goin on 4T]

supply ... demand.... supply ... demand.

speculators are like auction bidders -- but they only work off supply and demand.

Imagine an ebay with 10,000 xbox auctions. Now next week -- there are 10 xbox auction. What do you think the auction bidders will do with the auction prices?

Public Schools shoudl teach this shit early on.

r

Take it one step further people bidding on ebay with more money than is need to buy item z 100,000,000 times so they and the other traders run up the price, not based on actual analysis but on too much money followed by too much money. So then you get some analyst who comes up with some new garbage calculation that makes the ridiculous price reasonable. You know like a company trading at a multiple of future sales... Come on it is the dot com boom all over again. The hedge funds blew up the price and then walked away from the game...

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

This is from 2000.

The production of plastics has increased with China and India now a major force in the world for consumer goods. Add 4 billion new cell phones, computers iPods and the shipping, that will continue to increase as time goes on. You are right, fuel is a major portion ( I will continue to do my part to use it) but there are other products that consume a great portion of a BBL. The numbers are going up as we speak. Now with all the new construction needed because of the Ike thing, how much are we gonna need?

 

[billfred]

I just don't agree with that and I am too sick to try to write anything that would make any sense right now.

When you do feel well enough to write, make sure you include tangible examples on where all this new production is coming from.

Most peoplo who believe in this increased supply, never EVER put a pencil to it and just think the "experts" are lying to them.

 

[goin on 4T]

I got most of it from reading Exon Mobile, Chev and Coco 10k and 10qs...