houston and clemens VS SD and peavy,classic old horse vs new horse,11K limit tonight

[Spartacus]

Re: houston and clemens VS SD and peavy,classic old horse vs new horse,11K limit toni

the opposing teams tend to work the scheduled starters to match well against an ace
peavy has awesome numbers
183 strike outs in 160 IP
127 hits in 160 IP
ignore era,it's a measure of past performance
dominance and control forecast

not to mention ERA isn't even entirely dependant on THAT pitcher's performance
leaving the game with runner's on base with a strong bullpen as opposed to a weak bullpen screws ERA
and that whole deal with an "error" that would have recorded a 3rd out
but then the pitcher performs poorly with the next batters,and the runs are scored "unearned"

I look at K's per inning pitched(dominance)
K's per BB(control)
hits per inning pitched(dominance and effectiveness)

also too some flyouts would be HR's in different parks

 

[Spartacus]

if you really want to get involved you can read Bill James and the Elias baseball abstract for a decade as I did
they have formulations which will "adjust" a pitcher's performance due to ballpark effects

the "old" standby is wrigley is an awful place to make half your starts
eclipsed by high altitude colorado

where as cavernous dodger stadium was a very pitcher friendly park
if you are a pitcher on a team in an "extreme" ball park effect home and make half your starts there
you can bet your year end performance stats will measure this

years back elias wrote a well researched article on the difficulties the cubs will face winning a championship(this was before colorado)
mostly due to the psychological effects of cubs pitchers having to spend half their season pitching at home,where many "flyouts" become homeruns

 

[hamstershaver]

whip is a much better # in determining dominance than hits per innings pitched

 

[Spartacus]

Re: houston and clemens VS SD and peavy,classic old horse vs new horse,11K limit toni

whip is a much better # in determining dominance than hits per innings pitched

it's a good stat and fourth in what I look at
my first three already incorparate whip
I value strike-outs the most,measured against walks issued
a pitcher with better than a K per inning pitched,while issuing few walks
is "fooling" hitters with good stuff by either
a) making them swing at a pitch out of their zone
or
b)having such good stuff that the hitter misses the pitch even in his zone

you have to balance strike outs against walks issued in order to correctly account for the "one pitch" (i.e fast fastball) wonders who have a sole pitch to fool

having said this I'll take IP,Ks and walks
over
IP,Hits and walks

a pitcher striking out many while issuing few walks will be successful
unless he's knew in the leaque and the hitter's haven't seen his stuff much

 

[Spartacus]

and yes I was involved in a very competitive fantasy leaque started in 1988
in the 10 years I won 3 times,including back to back championships

it's relatively easy to evaluate hitters
forecasting which pitchers were due to improve was the key to winning
I wouldn't even go to the draft with ERA numbers and history of ERA

 

[Spartacus]

Re: houston and clemens VS SD and peavy,classic old horse vs new horse,11K limit toni

peavy is gonna get schooled i have a feeling

peavy himself singled to center against clemens in the 8th
san diego up 2-0