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GOOGLE is going public with IPO
- Thread starter georgie24
- Start date
Forge
New member
I'm buying through Ameritrade, so I'm going to wait a few days and see how the IPO goes. Buying at open will be risky unless you are on the floor, it is going to spike high and then level off in a few days. The real gain for most buyers will be more of a long term investment IMHO, and that's what I'm going for.
Many investors are going to make a lot of money the day Google goes public, but no one will do it through Ameritrade.
Many investors are going to make a lot of money the day Google goes public, but no one will do it through Ameritrade.
Bran987 said:
Microsoft has $40billion on hand and Google is in the cross hairs. Microsoft will own Goodle or destroy it.
This is a great day for the founders, a chance for them and other investors to get their money out, as well as stock-holding employees to do very well.
Google is a smart business idea that is easily repeatable. Or bought.
Forge
New member
MattTheSkywalker said:
So Matt, I'm curious, what would you suggest for a small time investor? Get in ASAP and pay whatever it goes for, or wait a week or so to see if it settles down? With MS hungry like they are, do you think Google is a good investment or not? If MS does buy them out, would the Google stock benefit or suffer from that?
Forge said:
Small time investor has to thik long term.
As to Google, it is what it is, competition will reduce their market share. If they are going public, then MS would rather compete with them than buy them (they would have already bought them).
Price will surge dring the IPO and associated transactions, after that it will drop. Google's model is a 'per-click' fee service. Pay 5 cents to $50 for each listing, then pay Google a fee when you are clicked on. More clicks gets you higher up on the listing.
It is a great model, but Internet searching technology is well understood and eventually the Internet will become regionalized as large companues start to control more of it.
Google will continue to make money; it costs very little to operate. I would add it to a potfolio, but I would not look at this as an opportunity to make some quick cash.
PIGEON-RAT
New member
i think this IPO is bad news for Google. they've made a great service without outside forces trying to push them in any direction. now they're gonna have people expecting more profit, probably trying to change the Adwords model.
MS is going to compete with Google, not buy them. They're investing a ton of R&D in search technology and definitely plan to depose Google from the throne.
MS is going to compete with Google, not buy them. They're investing a ton of R&D in search technology and definitely plan to depose Google from the throne.
C
Code
Guest
There is NO scheduled IPO for google.
No amount of hyperbole from newsweek and time magazines will force it to happen any faster.
Fact is, SEC regulations requires them to go public within 120 days of finishing the SEC forms, which HASN'T happened yet. The SEC has NOT valuated them at all.
No amount of hyperbole from newsweek and time magazines will force it to happen any faster.
Fact is, SEC regulations requires them to go public within 120 days of finishing the SEC forms, which HASN'T happened yet. The SEC has NOT valuated them at all.
gotmilk
New member
Code said:
They have more than 500 registered shareholders which is why they have to file with the S.E.C.....technically...they already are public based upon number of shareholders and revenues.
Sergei and Larry do not want to lose control and that's a major issue right now. They were told to reverse merge into a trading shell instead of paying huge banking fees. Sadly, the "shots" are now being played by the CFO and not the two founders.
Hell...this should run like TASR did over the last year...from $3 to a split adjusted $330 before profit takers dropped the price recently.
Razorguns
Well-known member
Yeah unless you got "ins" to buy right at the first second -- you wn't make much money.
Think about it. It opens at $8. All the lucky folks buy RIGHT THERE.
by the time your average joe gets ahold of it, it's up to $45 or so. So majority buy at $45 (making google the most amount of money).
It goes up to maybe $54 or $60. Stays around there for a few months. Starts dropping. Losing money. Perhaps rising. Who knows.
But the guys who got in at $8 and sold at $60 made BANK! Be one of those guys. Not the 99% who bought at $45.
That's how it works in the movies.
Think about it. It opens at $8. All the lucky folks buy RIGHT THERE.
by the time your average joe gets ahold of it, it's up to $45 or so. So majority buy at $45 (making google the most amount of money).
It goes up to maybe $54 or $60. Stays around there for a few months. Starts dropping. Losing money. Perhaps rising. Who knows.
But the guys who got in at $8 and sold at $60 made BANK! Be one of those guys. Not the 99% who bought at $45.
That's how it works in the movies.
collegiateLifter
New member
Don't buy IPOs or new offerings, pretty simple. IPOs are generally a fool's game
I have not followed this story AT ALL, but when the hot IPO`s of the late 90`s were going on, you could "get in" them BEFORE the IPO date. I was able to get a few IPO`s prior to them opening. If they are valued at (for example) $8/share they could open at $40 or higher, it would`nt matter, you still had x amount at $8/share.
There`s no way you can buy at the IPO date and get a good price. Who knows, maybe it`s different now and it`ll trade sideways or flounder for a while and then you get lucky but that`s just a gamble. YOU NEED to get in BEFORE the IPO date. Call your broker, You may have to have a "preferred" account status with them.
PS I had a discount broker and I did it. You don`t necessarily need a full service broker. good luck.
There`s no way you can buy at the IPO date and get a good price. Who knows, maybe it`s different now and it`ll trade sideways or flounder for a while and then you get lucky but that`s just a gamble. YOU NEED to get in BEFORE the IPO date. Call your broker, You may have to have a "preferred" account status with them.
PS I had a discount broker and I did it. You don`t necessarily need a full service broker. good luck.
Razorguns
Well-known member
exactly!
if you can't buy an IPO early at it's *low* rate -- don't buy at all. Otherwise you can join the millions of schmucks who buy high, make the company MILLIONS (remember -- the whole puropse of an IPO is to raise MAXIMUM cash possible), watch it go up/down 3-5 dollars for next 3 years, then one day lose it all.
kinda like all those dummy's who lost billions with the dot-com scams.
if you can't buy an IPO early at it's *low* rate -- don't buy at all. Otherwise you can join the millions of schmucks who buy high, make the company MILLIONS (remember -- the whole puropse of an IPO is to raise MAXIMUM cash possible), watch it go up/down 3-5 dollars for next 3 years, then one day lose it all.
kinda like all those dummy's who lost billions with the dot-com scams.
C
Code
Guest
Exactly the brand of hype that inflated our economy in the 90's.
The one thing that will change is the 20/80 conceot at google, which is the culture that kept it on top of the search industry all this time.
Having a new set of owners (shareholders) changes everything and people will leave.
Right now, NO ONE gets options at google so there won't be janitors driving porsche cars.
Google's strike price will very likely be above the price a day-trader would buy up. It's not going to be like yahoo, at ALL.
The one thing that will change is the 20/80 conceot at google, which is the culture that kept it on top of the search industry all this time.
Having a new set of owners (shareholders) changes everything and people will leave.
Right now, NO ONE gets options at google so there won't be janitors driving porsche cars.
Google's strike price will very likely be above the price a day-trader would buy up. It's not going to be like yahoo, at ALL.
georgie24 said:
Razorguns
Well-known member
it's not that hard to create a search engine. I hope investors realize this.
i was gonna create machosearch.com. Just like google, except everytime you go -- you see a pic of a hot cutie in the top right corner. All the guys would go to it. I'd make trillions!! Investors pm me.
i was gonna create machosearch.com. Just like google, except everytime you go -- you see a pic of a hot cutie in the top right corner. All the guys would go to it. I'd make trillions!! Investors pm me.
C
Code
Guest
Actually it isn't as easy as you'd think.
I mean unless you're so well versed in Bayesian inference that it's easy for you. In fact, I don't know anyone who hasn't studied information theory (not to be confused with the oft obtained with information management) who could create a useful search engine.
Search isn't just making some bot that crawls and caches.
I mean unless you're so well versed in Bayesian inference that it's easy for you. In fact, I don't know anyone who hasn't studied information theory (not to be confused with the oft obtained with information management) who could create a useful search engine.
Search isn't just making some bot that crawls and caches.
Razorguns said:
Razorguns
Well-known member
there were at least 20 search engines 2 years ago, before google killed them all.
but the new trend is to have search engines and have front-end sites wrapped around it. Meaning a "machosearch.com" could be a business entity that gets "powered" by google.
Microsoft could blow google away, cuz google really doesn't do much besides a toolbar and allow you to serach. Ebay is different, cuz people have accounts, links to paypal, items stored there, history stored there, familiar interface, business software linking to their api, etc. Google can make billions, but i see another big crash and loss coming for those dodos.
now if ebay goes public. there's a holding value of a stock.
but the new trend is to have search engines and have front-end sites wrapped around it. Meaning a "machosearch.com" could be a business entity that gets "powered" by google.
Microsoft could blow google away, cuz google really doesn't do much besides a toolbar and allow you to serach. Ebay is different, cuz people have accounts, links to paypal, items stored there, history stored there, familiar interface, business software linking to their api, etc. Google can make billions, but i see another big crash and loss coming for those dodos.
now if ebay goes public. there's a holding value of a stock.
You can forget making any real money thru a discount broker on this one. You need to be a customer of one of the firms underwriting the deal. All the underwriters will be on the cover of the prospectus. The companies in bold print will have more shares to go around. Since this is a virtual shoe-in to go up only the biggest clients will get any shares on the IPO itself....translation: you better have well upwards of $100K with one of those firms already. An office mgr may give an individual broker 50,000 shares to offer his clients. He ain't givin 'em to somebody who's only done $500 in commissions in 5 years. You're SOL. A Charley Schwab or Ameritrade account will get you post IPO shares that somebody else is already selling. I used to be a broker...i've seen this one close up.
Razorguns
Well-known member
Yep. The sheep that start buying after the shares go on the market, are doing nothing more than making money for the big guys who already got their stock at the initial moment.
It's in their interest to glamorize this IPO as much as they can in the press before the big day, so as soon as the bell sounds -- their profits go off the roof.
Dot-coms weren't really losers. Their investors made HUGE profits cuz they IPO'd firms at shares where THEY got in early at $5/share -- it went to market, popped up to $80/share. They sold and pocketed the profits. They could care less that the sheep lost billions 2 years later when they found out the dot-com folks were just playing doom and eating pizza all day. Investors could've cared less if the dot-coms were actually *doing* anything. The Dot-Com IPO is where the money was.
It's in their interest to glamorize this IPO as much as they can in the press before the big day, so as soon as the bell sounds -- their profits go off the roof.
Dot-coms weren't really losers. Their investors made HUGE profits cuz they IPO'd firms at shares where THEY got in early at $5/share -- it went to market, popped up to $80/share. They sold and pocketed the profits. They could care less that the sheep lost billions 2 years later when they found out the dot-com folks were just playing doom and eating pizza all day. Investors could've cared less if the dot-coms were actually *doing* anything. The Dot-Com IPO is where the money was.
Right, all the venture capitalists that have been funding Google up to now will be first to cash out, then other institutional investors like mutual funds, pension funds, etc. The small guy will have to hope that like the Red Hat IPO he can buy in at 150 and ride it to 300. On the other hand the VC's sunk almost $90 miilion into the dotcom I worked for and they ain't got shit to show for it. They crashed and burned over a year ago. I got two denim shirts and a nice coffee mug out of my 15,000 options though.
Like I said in my previous post, I was in on some IPOs and I certainly did`nt have 250k. I DID have a large enough account to get "preferred". I also had a discount broker. Discover Brokerage Direct. They are now Harris Direct. I`m not making this up bros.
They would ask whoever is interested in their IPO to "register" their name and they would let you know if you got the shares. Of course there were limited amounts of shares you could purchase. Some IPO`s I got, some I did`nt. After they approved your request, you would then "accept" to buy them or not BEFORE the day of the IPO. The day it opened, it could have been priced at $10/share but could rocket to $50, or even OPEN at $50 and you`re still in with the $10/share price. It was a fantasy world. damn...
They would ask whoever is interested in their IPO to "register" their name and they would let you know if you got the shares. Of course there were limited amounts of shares you could purchase. Some IPO`s I got, some I did`nt. After they approved your request, you would then "accept" to buy them or not BEFORE the day of the IPO. The day it opened, it could have been priced at $10/share but could rocket to $50, or even OPEN at $50 and you`re still in with the $10/share price. It was a fantasy world. damn...
bran987
New member
right, at the height of the tech boom there were such an overabundance of IPO's even smaller accounts could get in on them.. just not the ones that were guaranteed to go up. of course back then everything was going up so it didn't matter. I can't remember the name of the one we used but we were involved with one too... Fox or something only required a 15k accountgonelifting said:
Bran987 said:
I was offered the RedHat IPO and a ton of others... I don`t remember. I just rember RH because of the above post.
Razorguns
Well-known member
>day it opened, it could have been priced at $10/share but could rocket to $50, or >even OPEN at $50 and you`re still in with the $10/share price. It was a fantasy >world. damn
Yep. Like anyone on Wall Street can tell you. If you want to make money on wall street, you NEED money to begin with.
If someone can grab me google stock at it's initial STARTING value, i will GLADLY give you my entire life's savings, plus my entire families for it.
Then at 4pm we'll sell and go on a nice long world vacation.
Yep. Like anyone on Wall Street can tell you. If you want to make money on wall street, you NEED money to begin with.
If someone can grab me google stock at it's initial STARTING value, i will GLADLY give you my entire life's savings, plus my entire families for it.
Then at 4pm we'll sell and go on a nice long world vacation.
C
Code
Guest
It's not an actual IPO.
They are seeking 2.7 billion from a series of banks.... credit suisse and a couple others.
They are seeking 2.7 billion from a series of banks.... credit suisse and a couple others.
georgie24 said:
bran987
New member
discussion between people who are deciding whether or not to buy google lol
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/discussions/msgIndex.asp?siteId=mktw&boardId=54264
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/discussions/msgIndex.asp?siteId=mktw&boardId=54264
bran987
New member
you mean if you were "IN"
or if you were trying to buy it on the open market as soon as it goes public?
here's the problem, I don't know if you've ever done this before.. but unless you are pre-sold the shares at a set price, this is what happens:
you warm up your clicky finger muscles by playing a few xbox games, then go to your computer, get yourself a nice big cup of coffee and a comfortable chair, open your online trading program, and get ready for Google to GO IPO!!!
you figure out how many shares you can buy with 10k and get excited because you're going to own 1,000 shares at $10 per share, you can get the shares right when it opens! you even put in the ticker symbol, the number of shares and mark 'market order' so it will immediately execute. you're ready to click & get rich
so GOOGLE GOES IPO! you INSTANTLY click, YES! you and about 500,000 other hopeful day traders all INSTANTLY click, YES! Google opens at $10, a bargain!
and you're staring at the screen... waiting to see the "order status" change from "open" to "executed".. but the price is shooting up even faster than your increasing heartrate and the status of your order hasn't changed.
because you see... when that many people click BUY at once.. it creates an artificial "spike" in the price of the stock.. ZOOOOOOOOOOOOM
WTF?! your hands and pits start sweating and your finger hovers over the mouse button as you frantically decide whether or not to 'cancel' the order, but you can't, you waited too long to get into this, you wanted it too much. you're frozen.
after what seems like 10 minutes (but is in actuality only about 20 seconds) your order 'executes' at $50 per share. and you think... well.. that's not too bad.. I guess?
at that point google could run to $100 by the end of the day and you could double your money!!! or it could settle back down to half of the price you bought it at, $25, and your money could be work 5k....
the people who were "in" at $10 still made hundreds of percentage points GUARANTEED either way... but not you! because you're not rich yet.. and that's how the game is played.. along with you and hundreds of thousands of other hopefuls who will have their money disappear out of their computer and into the hands of the professionals...
When Google goes..... IPO!
or if you were trying to buy it on the open market as soon as it goes public?
here's the problem, I don't know if you've ever done this before.. but unless you are pre-sold the shares at a set price, this is what happens:
you warm up your clicky finger muscles by playing a few xbox games, then go to your computer, get yourself a nice big cup of coffee and a comfortable chair, open your online trading program, and get ready for Google to GO IPO!!!
you figure out how many shares you can buy with 10k and get excited because you're going to own 1,000 shares at $10 per share, you can get the shares right when it opens! you even put in the ticker symbol, the number of shares and mark 'market order' so it will immediately execute. you're ready to click & get rich
so GOOGLE GOES IPO! you INSTANTLY click, YES! you and about 500,000 other hopeful day traders all INSTANTLY click, YES! Google opens at $10, a bargain!
and you're staring at the screen... waiting to see the "order status" change from "open" to "executed".. but the price is shooting up even faster than your increasing heartrate and the status of your order hasn't changed.
because you see... when that many people click BUY at once.. it creates an artificial "spike" in the price of the stock.. ZOOOOOOOOOOOOM
WTF?! your hands and pits start sweating and your finger hovers over the mouse button as you frantically decide whether or not to 'cancel' the order, but you can't, you waited too long to get into this, you wanted it too much. you're frozen.
after what seems like 10 minutes (but is in actuality only about 20 seconds) your order 'executes' at $50 per share. and you think... well.. that's not too bad.. I guess?
at that point google could run to $100 by the end of the day and you could double your money!!! or it could settle back down to half of the price you bought it at, $25, and your money could be work 5k....
the people who were "in" at $10 still made hundreds of percentage points GUARANTEED either way... but not you! because you're not rich yet.. and that's how the game is played.. along with you and hundreds of thousands of other hopefuls who will have their money disappear out of their computer and into the hands of the professionals...
When Google goes..... IPO!
C
Code
Guest
It's an auction IPO.
No one here will be involved until the shares hit the open market hours after opening, at which point no one will be buying it at 50-60 bucks only to watch it fall back to 10-12.
No one here will be involved until the shares hit the open market hours after opening, at which point no one will be buying it at 50-60 bucks only to watch it fall back to 10-12.
bran987
New member
really?
this almost sounds like they actually CARE about the public but I guess the companies just want to be able to bid the low prices themselves without the public being involved.
if that is the case you just have to look at what you think it should be valued at based on income and future cash flows and see if you think it's still worth it by the time you have the opportunity.. but really smart people will have already done that by the time this hits the open market.. so it will probably be pretty fairly priced by then.
even so.. when it hits the open market expect another mini-IPO.. it could be priced at $50 when it hits then the public could run it up to $100 before it settles back to $75.. it's still not safe.. where there is huge possibility of return there is huge possibility of risk.. just depends if you can stand to lose the cash or not.
this almost sounds like they actually CARE about the public but I guess the companies just want to be able to bid the low prices themselves without the public being involved.
if that is the case you just have to look at what you think it should be valued at based on income and future cash flows and see if you think it's still worth it by the time you have the opportunity.. but really smart people will have already done that by the time this hits the open market.. so it will probably be pretty fairly priced by then.
even so.. when it hits the open market expect another mini-IPO.. it could be priced at $50 when it hits then the public could run it up to $100 before it settles back to $75.. it's still not safe.. where there is huge possibility of return there is huge possibility of risk.. just depends if you can stand to lose the cash or not.
Razorguns
Well-known member
It even says in the news release about the "elite" investors of the investment firms underwriting the deal getting first crack at the shares. Thsoe are the folks that MAKE money off of the IPO. The rest of the sheep are just raising funds for Google and have no collection privileges when google burns away millions of their money on lavish spending and hookers in vegas and dropping stock prices to $8 when MS takes over.
I just heard what Code said. They want the "little" investor to be in on this. You put in a bid of what you think is a resonable price and you MAY or may not get it. You certainly won`t get as many shares as you want. I`m not familiar with this strategy, I just heard it on the (financial) radio station while driving.
Also, the stock does`n have to open at $10 and climb REALLY FAST. It could open at $50 for the first price IF THAT`S WHAT the bids are. You can`t ask the question of "What will $10k make?"
I also heard it could be as high as $25Billion, so that 10X the price they`re looking at. Not sure where this began really, like I said I have`nt followed it. But having said 10x the price, does`nt mean you`ll get 10X your money. It might open at 15-20Billion, get it?
Also, the stock does`n have to open at $10 and climb REALLY FAST. It could open at $50 for the first price IF THAT`S WHAT the bids are. You can`t ask the question of "What will $10k make?"
I also heard it could be as high as $25Billion, so that 10X the price they`re looking at. Not sure where this began really, like I said I have`nt followed it. But having said 10x the price, does`nt mean you`ll get 10X your money. It might open at 15-20Billion, get it?
gotmilk
New member
Razorguns said:
Microsoft has their own search engine they are setting to launch in late 2004 and will be integrated into their new OS software. They plan on creating some kind of google "block"...which should be interesting depending on if they can pull it off.
Brin and Page are pussies..hookers are not their style. They might splurge on a fleet of electric SUV's though
Razorguns
Well-known member
It's google trying to trick the general public into thinking that "hey wait, perahps i WON'T get screwed cuz of this new method, and my money only filling up the bank accounts of google and their investors. Maybe i WILL make shitloads of money!".
It's just a marketing ploy. Last time I checked, the stock market was a form of an auction. The more people buy (ahem bid) the higher the stock.
I'm gonna create my own search engine. Create 10 million stock. All of you can buy it at one cent. I'm gonna create an IPO. Let the sheep of america buy our stock for $10/stock, we'll profit $9.99 profit/share. Fuck YEAH!
It's just a marketing ploy. Last time I checked, the stock market was a form of an auction. The more people buy (ahem bid) the higher the stock.
I'm gonna create my own search engine. Create 10 million stock. All of you can buy it at one cent. I'm gonna create an IPO. Let the sheep of america buy our stock for $10/stock, we'll profit $9.99 profit/share. Fuck YEAH!
Razorguns said:
You`re right bro.
But also, no one`s stopping you from doing that. lol
Just make sure you get 10 Kazillion hits per day on your site. Gotta admit it these guys did the right thing at the right time. Someone`s gotta do it. Good for them.
Razorguns
Well-known member
exactly. Google execs aren't stupid. Look at how yahoo OWNED the search market oh say 2 years ago or so and now they're like #3 or so.
They know there's nothing they don't offer that can stop microsoft from taking over. People don't even have google emails -- ms has hotmail. When microsoft becomes #1 -- guess who all the advertisers are gonna go to? Yep MS. Who wants to spend their "per-click" budget on the #2 and dropping site?
This is just their ploy to rake out a few billion and pocket it before the company goes under. In 3 years google'll be gone, but their execs will be set for life (and the sheep day traders bitching and crying).
They know there's nothing they don't offer that can stop microsoft from taking over. People don't even have google emails -- ms has hotmail. When microsoft becomes #1 -- guess who all the advertisers are gonna go to? Yep MS. Who wants to spend their "per-click" budget on the #2 and dropping site?
This is just their ploy to rake out a few billion and pocket it before the company goes under. In 3 years google'll be gone, but their execs will be set for life (and the sheep day traders bitching and crying).
