Economic Derpression of 2001

[Shrebly]

Treasury Department insiders are warning that America’s economic health will continue to decline over the next few months – leading to another Depression. Wall Street mogul Mark Tugent says this, “What our leaders know full well but are too afraid to tell the public, out of fear of sparking panic and a run on the banks, is that America is headed for a total economic implosion – one that will make the crash of 1929 look mild in comparison”

Projected Events:

Social Security checks will stop being issued – the government will no longer have the resources to provide funds.

Stock Market: Tugent says this: A stock market crash so devastating that even blue chip stocks will be worthless. Anyone with a 401K linked to mutual funds will see their nest egg dried up.

Nation wide bank failures. Domino effect will cause one bank after another to close their doors, along with progressive foreclosures on homes, automobiles and farms. [indirect quote from Tugent]

Small businesses will feel this first – without money coming in to pay the bills they will be forced out of business – unemployment compensation won’t be an option since those funds will have long since been sucked dry.

At the end of the day – widespread rioting will occur due to food shortages, lack of commercial goods and necessities.

Exerts suggest the following tips to survive this ‘social chaos’.

Stock up on canned foods, bottled water, medicines and non-perishable foods now before the prices go through the roof.

Withdraw small amounts of money from your bank account at a time – it’s most likely that cash will be useless since hyperinflation will be in effect.

Stock up on guns, ammunition and other items that can be used as weapons to safeguard your home, family and possessions. Start a neighborhood network – in case of things get bad you can all live together and exist as a team rather than unorganized homeless mutants.

[portions of this review were taken from Weekly World news, August 14th publication]

 

[WODIN]

Hey I have a shit load of ammo and fire power. You know us country fuckers, we like to shoot shit up!!! LOL!!!!

I do think we are heading for a serious recession for the Q3 - Q4 of 2001 and Q1 and possible Q2 of 2002. However I do not see a depression on the horizon since the banking powers that be won there battles with Washington a long time ago.

My reasoning is that you will see a base inventories reduction from the overstocks of the past 10 months and by the middle of next year factory orders will start up again for enduse retail establishments.

I do see a really shitty 18 months ahead for the auto industry. They're pretty well fucked from over production.

 

[BackDoc]

Even though I am optimistic and take economic forecasting with mixed expectations, I think my blood pressure just went up a few points.

 

[Milhouse]

The best way to beat this shit is to not read all the negative bullshit and accept it like everyone else.
This happens every so many years usally around the beginning of every new decade, we just dont notice until its too late for some.
My message to anyone involved in sales and service type industries is to just bust your ass twice as much.

I did this last year and I picked up a shit load of new cust and I am the only one in my company who has an increase of biz this year. Not alot because the regulars arent ordering as frequently ie every 6-8 weeks instead of 3-5. But with the extra cust I busted my ass to get it has definatly soften the blow.
Basically this can apply to any type of job out there. Can't gaurantee we can lose a job or business but the best way to try to keep this from happening is to increase yourself in value as an employee/employer.

And most important thing I have learned from not being prepared in the last recession when I started in the full time work force in 90-91 is to be ready when the good times start to roll again in the next year or 2.

Take courses in school to enhance your value in the work force, get a second little job no matter how shitty or below you it might be to keep your head above water, pay off or keep as much out of debt possible.

Anyone over the age of 30 will rmember this.
Back in the late 80's lots of people (they were called yuppies) were making a shitload of dough and enjoying a very wealthy lifestyle, some quite arrogantly. Then the ass fell out and alot of people thought this was the end, and some got put in thier place by not being prepared.

Same thing just happened to a new crop of companies and people over the past year and a bit.
History repeats itself, you get bad times, then good times, rest and repeat.

 

[Imnotdutch]

Wow great post.....hard work can make up for alot of things. This is the difference between those that sink and those that swim.

I have a freind in sales. She works incredibly hard and despite being given a shitty territory her sales still went up this year and she is in the top 1/3 of the sales force.....so now they want to move her to something more productive!

The best way to beat this shit is to not read all the negative bullshit and accept it like everyone else.
This happens every so many years usally around the beginning of every new decade, we just dont notice until its too late for some.
My message to anyone involved in sales and service type industries is to just bust your ass twice as much.

I did this last year and I picked up a shit load of new cust and I am the only one in my company who has an increase of biz this year. Not alot because the regulars arent ordering as frequently ie every 6-8 weeks instead of 3-5. But with the extra cust I busted my ass to get it has definatly soften the blow.
Basically this can apply to any type of job out there. Can't gaurantee we can lose a job or business but the best way to try to keep this from happening is to increase yourself in value as an employee/employer.

And most important thing I have learned from not being prepared in the last recession when I started in the full time work force in 90-91 is to be ready when the good times start to roll again in the next year or 2.

Take courses in school to enhance your value in the work force, get a second little job no matter how shitty or below you it might be to keep your head above water, pay off or keep as much out of debt possible.

Anyone over the age of 30 will rmember this.
Back in the late 80's lots of people (they were called yuppies) were making a shitload of dough and enjoying a very wealthy lifestyle, some quite arrogantly. Then the ass fell out and alot of people thought this was the end, and some got put in thier place by not being prepared.

Same thing just happened to a new crop of companies and people over the past year and a bit.
History repeats itself, you get bad times, then good times, rest and repeat.

 

[WODIN]

Very Good post milhouse.

 

[Milhouse]

Thanks,
Would you believe that pre mid 1993 no company would let me near the customers for fear I would tell them to fuck off.
I did it a few times in that period, something about having an attitude problem. Now I cant work a job where I dont get to work with clients. Funny how life goes.

Thank my dad for that.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Social Security checks will stop being issued – the government will no longer have the resources to provide funds

GOOD! that little piece of socialism was doomed from it's get go. This will be one good thing that is produced by the recession. Maybe once people have this money back in their take home pay they can invest it in the PRIVATE sector and the economy will be boosted as a result.

 

[booger]

This is Good

My ammo is nearing its 'expiration date'.

 

[RyanH]

1998-1992: GEORGE BUSH SERVED AS PRESIDENT----economy hits recession.

1992-2000: WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON SERVED AS PRESIDENT------economy flourishes.

2001------: GEORGE BUSH SERVES AS PRESIDENT----economy begins to slide towards recession.

ANYONE SEE A PATTERN HERE? Hold onto those 300.00 refunds, you might need it!!!!!

 

[FrankRizzo]

I also heard another theory about what someone has done effects what will happen later. (I forget the latin for it)...Anywho, they were attempting to say that the poor economy in Carters days were not his fault, but the great economy in Reagans was Carter's doing.

That $300 was nothing more than an advance on next years return anyway.

 

[supersizeme]

I don't follow politics but that was a pretty ignorant post Ryan. who is president and what party they are affiliated with has very little to nothing to do with the economic trend. had gore been elected, the economy still would have gone down.

in regards to getting guns and stocking up on canned goods...i give that a big LOL
the same shit was said about Y2K. this time it is even less likely that we would ever get to that point. i would love to know who these "experts" are...probably a bunch of conspiracy theorists.

 

[thefantom1]

1998-1992: GEORGE BUSH SERVED AS PRESIDENT----economy hits recession.

1992-2000: WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON SERVED AS PRESIDENT------economy flourishes.

2001------: GEORGE BUSH SERVES AS PRESIDENT----economy begins to slide towards recession.

ANYONE SEE A PATTERN HERE? Hold onto those 300.00 refunds, you might need it!!!!!

Damnit!!!! RyanH you are pissing me off here...again!!!!!! You and I are not suppossed to agree on things.....

 

[Imnotdutch]

In the UK a similar story is told. We used to have a Conservative government (remember John Major?). The country was really run down during the conservative years. When Labour got into power they inherited a run down country which had to have money spent on it.
The result being that Tony Blairs government could have ended up looking very bad.

The country does seem to have improved alot since Labour got into power though......people who hadnt worked for years now do for instance.

I also heard another theory about what someone has done effects what will happen later. (I forget the latin for it)...Anywho, they were attempting to say that the poor economy in Carters days were not his fault, but the great economy in Reagans was Carter's doing.

That $300 was nothing more than an advance on next years return anyway.

 

[RyanH]

I don't follow politics but that was a pretty ignorant post Ryan. who is president and what party they are affiliated with has very little to nothing to do with the economic trend. had gore been elected, the economy still would have gone down.

I didn't place blame on anyone here, supersizeme. I'm simply stating facts..........

The question is whether these facts are simply coincidence? If these economic facts are coincidence, then it's certainly a BIG ONE.

 

[RyanH]

Damnit!!!! RyanH you are pissing me off here...again!!!!!! You and I are not suppossed to agree on things.....

I'm glad that we can finally agree........

 

[fistfullofsteel]

Is it me or is Bush on vacation every time I see him on TV? When I saw Clinton on TV after his speech on TV to the nation while serving president. He was looking like shit already. Looking shit because he was busting balls! No it wasn't on that fat pig Monica. If the CEO of a company spent more time on the gulf course instead of the office, wouldn't it have some sort of bad repercussion on the company?

 

[booger]

Gotta Be True

If the Weekly World News says so. After all look at this bit of factual info from them. They are a credible source.

 

[crashnet]

RyanH, the stock market started tanking in March 2000 and was down 40% when Clinton left office. Bush is now starting to clean up the mess Clinton left him with.

 

[Freak Show]

Start a neighborhood network – in case of things get bad you can all live together and exist as a team rather than unorganized homeless mutants.

[portions of this review were taken from Weekly World news, August 14th publication]

"homeless mutants"???? Gimme a break. Who wrote this piece of trash, Dean Koontz?

 

[fistfullofsteel]

RyanH, the stock market started tanking in March 2000 and was down 40% when Clinton left office. Bush is now starting to clean up the mess Clinton left him with.

The only thing he is cleaning up is after his daughter. I guess drinking runs in the family. You let me know what exactly he is doing to clean things up, and how he is doing it? Also let me know what he is cleaning up after besides his daughter.

 

[JustinM]

who gives a shit about his daughter, you never drank before you were allowed too??

peace

 

[crashnet]

The only thing he is cleaning up is after his daughter. I guess drinking runs in the family. You let me know what exactly he is doing to clean things up, and how he is doing it? Also let me know what he is cleaning up after besides his daughter.

What's he cleaning up? How about a 40% drop in the stock market that Clinton left him. Or how about 8 straight months of job lossess in the manufacturing sector that Clinton left him. Or how about the energy crisis that Clinton left him. I could go on.

What's GW doing to fix it? Well he's only been in office for about 6 months and he's already signed the largest tax cut in history.

 

[john937]

Social Security checks will stop being issued - the government will no longer have the resources to provide funds

GOOD! that little piece of socialism was doomed from it's get go. This will be one good thing that is produced by the recession. Maybe once people have this money back in their take home pay they can invest it in the PRIVATE sector and the economy will be boosted as a result. [/B]

No, we'll be paying for more groceries cause elderly Mom and Dad are now camping out in our living rooms.
I'm very happy to pay social security if it means my Mom doesn't move in with me!

 

[fistfullofsteel]

What's he cleaning up? How about a 40% drop in the stock market that Clinton left him. Or how about 8 straight months of job lossess in the manufacturing sector that Clinton left him. Or how about the energy crisis that Clinton left him. I could go on.

What's GW doing to fix it? Well he's only been in office for about 6 months and he's already signed the largest tax cut in history.

First of all show me the numbers of 40%. Then tell me how it benefits the economy by having a tax cut that mostly benefits the rich.

 

[booger]

Not Too Worry John937

No, we'll be paying for more groceries cause elderly Mom and Dad are now camping out in our living rooms.

Jack Kevorkian for Surgeon General. He'll take care of them.

 

[Checkmatebloated]

buy pork bellies!

 

[Mdguy]

I didn't read all the posts but no matter what the economic situation is at any particular time there are always these 'doom and gloomers' feeding on the feelings of the frustrated and downtrodden for their own financial benefit. I've heard this stuff from dozens of different people for the past decade and everyone of them creates a new scare tactic every year or so to keep or get new 'disciples'. First it was the downfall of communism putting nuclear missles in the hands of rogue nations and terrorists, then the collapse of social security, the Clinton ruination of the economy once elected, then the War in Kosovo/Baltic was supposed to embroil us in WW3, and then Y2K...this stock market correction is fuel for their fire now

The only thing that I know for sure is that under a fiat money system that the U.S. has now, the dollar WILL eventually become worthless and we will go bankrupt...10,20, 50 years who knows, but it will happen

 

[lincoln]

The best way to beat this shit is to not read all the negative bullshit and accept it like everyone else. .

AMEN

 

[rmurf62]

Um boys, why are we seriously discussing a op/ed article pulled from the WEEKLY WORLD NEWS?????????????? Weren't we supposed to have gone through a new ice age last winter or something? After the aliens put us into global slavery?

I agree with Milhouse. We're in a recession, it'll probably stick around for a while, but it'll eventually pull out (if president hoover, um bush, doesn't manage to fuck things up too badly.)

 

[Shrebly]

If I wanted your opinion I would have asked for it after your last account was cancelled.

Baa bye Bill Clinton...

 

[WODIN]

The only thing that I know for sure is that under a fiat money system that the U.S. has now, the dollar WILL eventually become worthless and we will go bankrupt...10,20, 50 years who knows, but it will happen

Our monitary system is not a fiat one. The only time in the nations history that a fiat currency existed was during the colonial expansion before the revolutionary war. Our monitary system is based on debt balancing.

 

[Shrebly]

There goes Wodin [wooooodin] and his big brain again.

 

[Mdguy]

Our monitary system is not a fiat one. The only time in the nations history that a fiat currency existed was during the colonial expansion before the revolutionary war. Our monitary system is based on debt balancing.

Thanks for the correction...I meant to type " fractional reserve banking system" which is debt based and essentially creates money out of thin air backed by nothing, but fiat came out for some reason

 

[WODIN]

I totally agree with you that this system is about to blow its proverbial cork.

 

[Mdguy]

Yeah, its a matter of time-actually past history proves this to be inevitable. Just be mentally prepared for it if it does happen..and have the 3 g's handy--guns, gold, and gonads

 

[WODIN]

already there bro.

 

[Mdguy]

I forgot the 4th G- God damn Alzheimer's....

Looks like we're on the same page...I really don't want to finish the book to see the ending though

 

[ceo]

History of the Modern Bear Market (DJIA)

Beginning of Bear:/Length:/%Decline(peak to trough):/ 12 mo. increase after lowest pt:

May 1946 11.8 mos. -23.2% +14.8%
Apr 1956 18.8 mos. -19.4% +22.6%
Dec 1961 6.5 mos. -27.1% +24.4%
Feb 1966 8.0 mos. -25.2% +20.2%
Dec 1968 17.9 mos. -35.9% +30.1%
Jan 1973 23.1 mos. -45.1% +29.7%
Sep 1976 17.5 mos. -26.9% +7.9%
Apr 1981 15.7 mos. -24.1% +34.3%
Aug 1987 1.8 mos. -36.1% +18.6%
July 1990 2.9 mos. -21.2% +20.7%
AVERAGE: 12.4 mos. -28.4% +22.3%
Source: 2000 Dow Jones & Company

-Bear Markets are part of a normal cyclical market
-Every Bear Market has always ended
-The rally following the lows in a Bear Market have never occurred in a good news environment, and the rallies are always viewed with suspicion

 

[ceo]

Down Years are Often Followed by Up Years

A retrospective of down markets during the past 50 years (1950-2000)

1953 -1.0%
1954 +52.6%
1957 -10.8%
1958 +43.4%
1962 -8.7%
1963 +22.8%
1966 -10.1%
1967 +24.0%
1969 -8.5%
1970 +4.0%
1973 -14.7%
1974 -26.5%
1975 +37.2%
1977 -7.2%
1978 +6.6%
1981 -4.9%
1982 +21.4%
1990 -3.2%
1991 +30.5%
2000 -9.1%
Based on the Standars & Poor's 500 stock index (S&P 500), an unmanaged index used as a general measure of market performance.
Source: Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 2001 Yearbook, Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Based on copyrighted works by Ibbotson and Sinquefield.

-9 out of 10 markets through 1999 have been followed by positive returns the next year
-Average return in a down year was -9.6%
-Average return in an up year following a down year was +26.9%

 

[ceo]

The old Wall Street adage says: Don't fight the Fed - when the Fed raises interest rates, the market eventually pulls back; when the Fed lowers interest rates, the market eventually advances.

There is typically lag time between when the Federal Discount Rate drops and when the market begins a noticeable and significant advance.

90% of stock market gains since 1950 have occurred while the Fed is easing interest rates.*

*Source: Wall Street Journal

 

[ceo]

To sum all this up:

It's a great time to be in the market (buying). If your local Macy's, Nordstrom, Sak's, whatever is having a "BLOWOUT SALE OF THE DECADE," and "EVERYTHING IS AT LEAST 50% OFF!", what do you do?
Do you hide in your house and say "we'd better not go near that mall!"
No way! You go to the store and get some stuff! You buy all you can! This is the same deal.
Just choose wisely, and get professional help.

Most people who have been investing in the market for a while (say 10+ years), say their biggest regrets were: they didn't start sooner; they didn't put away more; and they didn't seek professional help sooner.

One last thing: READ: THE ROARING 2000'S by, Harry S. Dent Jr.
This is the guy that predicted in 1988 (when the Dow was around 2300 points), that by the year 2000 the Dow would reach 10,000 points. Everybody laughed then. But, 12 years later he proved himself and now they're listening to him.

 

[Hoffmeister]

Damn!

Glad to see the Y2k Doomers have found a new calling. Maybe they can sell off some of those MREs.

Heck, all we need now is Scary Gary North and we'll be all set.

 

[ciscokid1]

Ryan H no matter who is in office this was bound to happen it is called the bursting of the bubble stocks could go no higher strictly based on speculation, and projected earnings for years down the road. And as someone pointed out stocks were slidding big time when George W. took over.

 

[RyanH]

Sure....there's no coorelation to Bush being in office:

Unemployment has now hit a 9 year high.

Social Security Funds must now be tapped.

The surplus has been squandered.

The Stock Market has taken a huge hit.

All of this just so happened after G.W. took office. We all know that Republicans are bad for the economy....see the Reagan era, both Bush eras....

 

[Shrebly]

I guess no one bothered to read the last line of my post.... this was an article posted in the Weekly World News.

 

[crashnet]

Once again Ryan needs to check his facts.


1. The stock market started tanking in March of 2000. It was down 40% by the time Clinton left office.

2. The manufacturing sector lost jobs every month for the last 8 months of Clinton's presidency.


Its obvious that Clinton left Bush a mess. The American people understand that Bush is fixing it and that's why his poll numbers are so high.

 

[ciscokid1]

Ryan, I think I hate you! I disagree with you on 99.9% of views.