Wow...tomorrow's really going to suck when I walk into work.

[75th]

Lehman is apparently going to declare bankruptcy.

Dow futures are already down 300+ points.

Im sure that Bank of American buying out Merrill and AIG spinning off ILF (which is great news for me as I have a few clients who hold International Lease Finance corporate notes...8% for 18 months is a pretty good deal) will not really help all that much.

Fucking market.

 

[UA_Iron]

Better investments than the "buy a house with your gf fund"

I just punched myself.

 

[75th]

Better investments than the "buy a house with your gf fund"

I just punched myself.

Compared to whats going on now I think I may actually start recommending that people buy property with their girlfriends.

 

[JR76]

With all the rain you've had today, you might be canoeing into the office.

 

[Beaverscratch]

I love going to work when the market is down! I thought you were into ultra conservative positions?

 

[75th]

With all the rain you've had today, you might be canoeing into the office.

Yeah no shit. Fucking raining for 3 days straight.

 

[75th]

I love going to work when the market is down! I thought you were into ultra conservative positions?

Most of my clients are, but when the markets down 300 points unless you are in 100% individual bonds theres really nowhere to hide.

Plus Ill have to spend 3/4 of my day calling all of my clients explaining whats going on.

 

[JR76]

Most of my clients are, but when the markets down 300 points unless you are in 100% individual bonds theres really nowhere to hide.

Plus Ill have to spend 3/4 of my day calling all of my clients explaining whats going on.

And you can be in 100% fixed income products and STILL have no place to hide, just ask some of my private equity & hedge fund clients! Debt markets go down too.

 

[Dial_tone]

Most of my clients are, but when the markets down 300 points unless you are in 100% individual bonds theres really nowhere to hide.

Plus Ill have to spend 3/4 of my day calling all of my clients explaining whats going on.

I'm sure they'll be calling you. Sell all my stocks! Put me in cash! The sky is falling. I used to work for Lehman Bros in ATL.

 

[mrplunkey]

Somehow I feel the AAA tax-free municipal bonds backed by taxation are going to have a good day tomorrow...

 

[75th]

And you can be in 100% fixed income products and STILL have no place to hide, just ask some of my private equity & hedge fund clients! Debt markets go down too.

Good point. I would say 90% of the fixed income I have is Treasury or Muni.

 

[75th]

I'm sure they'll be calling you. Sell all my stocks! Put me in cash! The sky is falling. I used to work for Lehman Bros in ATL.

God, thats what all my conversations have been like over the past 8 months.

Even when the client is already all in cash, they call me to see if its all FDIC insured.

 

[75th]

Somehow I feel the AAA tax-free municipal bonds backed by taxation are going to have a good day tomorrow...

FSA + General Obligation = Winner

 

[mrplunkey]

Even the spectre of raising corporate tax rates should keep the stock market in the crapper until at least early next year too. There's nowhere really good to hide unless you want to just go ultra-conservative and weather the storm.

 

[75th]

Even the spectre of raising corporate tax rates should keep the stock market in the crapper until at least early next year too. There's nowhere really good to hide unless you want to just go ultra-conservative and weather the storm.

Indeed. At the same time the younger folk want to be in a good position when the upswing happens.

Im setting up a SMA tomorrow for a early 30's guy with $500k who wants 100% equity. His idea.

 

[JR76]

Good point. I would say 90% of the fixed income I have is Treasury or Muni.

Our guys do leveraged loans. I was looking up comps today from the publishing industry -- what a cluster fuck! A lot of these names were trading at 95 or so cents on the dollar at the end of Feb. Right now, they're in the 35 to 45 range -- all covenant lite deals (this is a bad thing) with many years to go till maturity. And with no covenants to trip, things will have to get really bad before the companies go into technical default.

Treasuries, munies, and certain investment grades are the only way to go if you're retail. I'm watching the institutional guys make serious cash in loans and high yield, but you have to have masterful timing and access to what little deal flow there is coming down the pipeline.

 

[EnderJE]

Compared to whats going on now I think I may actually start recommending that people buy property with their psycho soon to be ex girlfriends.

fixed it

 

[UA_Iron]

Indeed. At the same time the younger folk want to be in a good position when the upswing happens.

Im setting up a SMA tomorrow for a early 30's guy with $500k who wants 100% equity. His idea.

I have to find a place to stash ~10-60k after this debacle.

The best savings account I could find has a 6% APY

Now is probably a good time to buy though, weather the storm and come out high later on in life.

 

[EnderJE]

Is it just me or isn't it better to put in stocks right now for when the market returns to it's previous gains? Sure, it looks bad now but statistically it always comes back.

 

[Razorguns]

If you didn't buy the "buying a big house is a great retirement fund!" scam -- you're okay.

r

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

Private equity has been killer the last few months. My guys are whales that are diversifying and getting out of the market (most of them in Nov last year when oil started to go nuts. They have been buying real estate to hold and doing our throwing money at us. (local WISP expanding rapidly)

The guys that were really hurt are the ones that had all their eggs in one basket so I am told. My stuff is fine cause I lost it all 2 years ago so I started from scratch and have been ultra conservative. Damn I know how all this feels trying to make a living when everyone wants to buy what I don't have to sell.


^^^
ps I have a big house it has appreciated 3.5% the first quarter and 4.8% this quarter. Love big rooms.... Texas RE in most areas has rocked.

 

[75th]

Is it just me or isn't it better to put in stocks right now for when the market returns to it's previous gains? Sure, it looks bad now but statistically it always comes back.

Now is probably a good time to buy though, weather the storm and come out high later on in life.

As long as you have at least 10-12 months to let it sit I would say definately.

 

[75th]

Private equity has been killer the last few months. My guys are whales that are diversifying and getting out of the market (most of them in Nov last year when oil started to go nuts. They have been buying real estate to hold and doing our throwing money at us. (local WISP expanding rapidly)

The guys that were really hurt are the ones that had all their eggs in one basket so I am told. My stuff is fine cause I lost it all 2 years ago so I started from scratch and have been ultra conservative. Damn I know how all this feels trying to make a living when everyone wants to buy what I don't have to sell.


^^^
ps I have a big house it has appreciated 3.5% the first quarter and 4.8% this quarter. Love big rooms.... Texas RE in most areas has rocked.

PE seems interesting. Im sitting for level 1 of my CFA in December. May want to move into either that or Portfolio Management.

If I pass all three levels, that is.

 

[EnderJE]

As long as you have at least 10-12 months to let it sit I would say definately.

That's what I don't get. I couldn't predict what the weather is like tomorrow, much less what the stock market is going to do in a year. Me? I got my money tied up for 5 - 10 years for the investments and for 30d / 60d for emergencies.

I guess I'm not that much of a risk taker.

 

[75th]

That's what I don't get. I couldn't predict what the weather is like tomorrow, much less what the stock market is going to do in a year. Me? I got my money tied up for 5 - 10 years for the investments and for 30d / 60d for emergencies.

I guess I'm not that much of a risk taker.

Average bear market lasts 16-18 months. Were in month 13. Its not going to last forever.

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

PE seems interesting. Im sitting for level 1 of my CFA in December. May want to move into either that or Portfolio Management.

If I pass all three levels, that is.

I doubt you will have any problems doing that. PE is a great place to spend your time. These guys get it and they don't try to run the show. They say, ok here is 250k call me when you know something.

 

[Beaverscratch]

Most of my clients are, but when the markets down 300 points unless you are in 100% individual bonds theres really nowhere to hide.

Plus Ill have to spend 3/4 of my day calling all of my clients explaining whats going on.

I hear ya on that! At least you are a proactive advisor. call them before they even think about calling you and they will be yours forever...Or until you get so big you have to fire them because you now have a new account minimum policy.

Do you read Nick Murray?

 

[Beaverscratch]

Indeed. At the same time the younger folk want to be in a good position when the upswing happens.

Im setting up a SMA tomorrow for a early 30's guy with $500k who wants 100% equity. His idea.

Sounds like the guy knows his shit! We are coming closer and closer to a bottom. In his early 30s he has a long time to recover. That is one you mark "unsolicited!" for sho!

 

[Beaverscratch]

PE seems interesting. Im sitting for level 1 of my CFA in December. May want to move into either that or Portfolio Management.

If I pass all three levels, that is.

Please forgive my ignorance..What is the CFA? a CFP for someone who cant make the newly mandated CFP Bachelor Degree requirements?

You sell any annuities? What do you think of the living benefits, GMIBs, GWB's and such?

Where did you get the "13 months" of bear? Oct was the highest of highs, that would make it approx 11 months deep would it not?

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

Sounds like the guy knows his shit! We are coming closer and closer to a bottom. In his early 30s he has a long time to recover. That is one you mark "unsolicited!" for sho!

Sounds like someone that has no clue. Who are you anyway?

 

[Beaverscratch]

Sounds like someone that has no clue. Who are you anyway?

Hi my name is Beaverscratch, nice to meet you Grump. If youhave any specific questions as to who I am, I will be glad to answer.

Why do you say someone has no clue? Is that someone you are referring to me? I am an advisor. I believe that someone young as mid 30's should be 100% equities, that is if they have the stomach for it. Im a big fan of Jeremy Siegel, Nick Murray, I follow thier work. I believe in long term equities. I coach my clients to expect horrible years, great years, flat years, so they know what to expect coming in.

I dont believe in this, take your age...subtract it from 100 and that equals what your stock/bond allocation should be.

Grump...Perhaps on the post that you quoted me on, I shouldve explained a little deeper. I was saying the kid is buying in to what I believe pretty low. I dont believe we are going to go much lower except for temporary, quick short, volitile dips, following by little sucker rallies...then not far from now...Maybe a few months down the road we will see a nice REAL rally into a bull market. IF I am wrong, and the young investor is wrong....well he has time to make his money back because time is on his side. I hope that makes more sense.

 

[ceo]

Please forgive my ignorance..What is the CFA? a CFP for someone who cant make the newly mandated CFP Bachelor Degree requirements?

You sell any annuities? What do you think of the living benefits, GMIBs, GWB's and such?

Where did you get the "13 months" of bear? Oct was the highest of highs, that would make it approx 11 months deep would it not?

CFA>CFP (x10)

 

[Spartacus]

you have your health

 

[75th]

Please forgive my ignorance..What is the CFA? a CFP for someone who cant make the newly mandated CFP Bachelor Degree requirements?

You sell any annuities? What do you think of the living benefits, GMIBs, GWB's and such?

Where did you get the "13 months" of bear? Oct was the highest of highs, that would make it approx 11 months deep would it not?

My bad for the typo, I meant 11 months.

CFA = Chartered Financial Analyst.

Last round only 20% of those who took it passed. Ill probably fail, too.

 

[needtogetarmy]

There is always money to be made in the market. Ever hear of shorting? @ $5 a point for YM's a 300 point drop is some nice change. Multiply that by 60 contracts too.

 

[goin on 4T]

Grump...Perhaps on the post that you quoted me on, I shouldve explained a little deeper. I was saying the kid is buying in to what I believe pretty low. I dont believe we are going to go much lower except for temporary, quick short, volitile dips, following by little sucker rallies...then not far from now...Maybe a few months down the road we will see a nice REAL rally into a bull market. IF I am wrong, and the young investor is wrong....well he has time to make his money back because time is on his side. I hope that makes more sense.

Yep that is the way I see it too!
The funny thing about the DOW is they throw out the loosers, add in what they think will be winners and wham the DOW always seems to come back!

 

[jnevin]

 

[75th]

LOL

Gets me every time.

 

[Creepusmaximus]

Average bear market lasts 16-18 months. Were in month 13. Its not going to last forever.

This is a speial case. The US has never had this deep of a housing recession(depression), to much cheap money led to way to much speculation. What's different is the amount of foreclosures and they will screw up the housing market for a long time to come. On top of that you have all those home loans leveraged higher than they ever have been. That part will work out probably by the end of this year but the foreclosures aren't going anywhere.