What is Saddam's plan

[Lao Tzu]

My understanding is Saddam's plan is this.

In the Gulf war, all he had to do was weather the beating until the coalition left and he was still in power. Like an abused son who cowers in the corner until his dad is too tired to continue beating the shit out of him, Iraq is trying to draw this war out as long as they can. Supposedly (this is my own conjecture here) that is why Iraq divided the country into 4 sections and put all the republican guardsmen in Baghdad (which has 1/4 of the Iraqi population in it). Iraq knows we don't want civilian casualties so sooner or later we will be faced with a situation which puts us between a rock & a hard place. Do we attack Baghdad to get republican guard soldiers (and kill thousands of civilians, which Iraq intentionally put in harms way), or do we draw the war out for months on end by bombing from afar, or do we invade and lose thousands of soldiers in urban warfare?

So that puts us in 3 deeply undesirable situations.

1. Kill thousands of civilians to hit Republican guards soldiers
2. Drag the war out for months
3. Invade Baghdad and lose thousands of soldiers

The hoped for consequences (for Iraq) are thus

1. The world and home condemn the US government for killing civilians, the US government is forced to give up in order to avoid more casualties.

2. The war takes longer than the 48 hours americans were hoping for, approval drops to 20% and we give up. Not only that, but this gives the international community time to find a way to restrain us.

3. Same as point 2. Americans lose desire to continue this war incredibly fast, and we are forced to withdrawl due to domestic disputes.

All the while the Iraqi government is drawing out the war, the Iraqi government is trying to play itself off as 'the victim of bullying' in order to gain international support in the hopes that eventually protests by either civilians, governments or the UN will force us to withdrawl. Perhaps this is why our plan is to overthrow Iraq in a 'shock & awe' campaign, to prevent the international community from having the time to stop us (like they could if they wanted, luckily. Hopefully Bush is principled enough to keep fighting until we win).

Its my understanding that that is plan A.

Plan B might be to release chemical & biological weapons on US soldiers & (as a consequence) Iraqi civilians, killing as many as they can. They won't do that under plan A because its hard to be seen as 'the victim' when you are committing war crimes agaisnt civilians. But if plan A fails this may be their next move. Assuming plan B fails.....

Plan C might be to destroy as much as they can. Bomb Israelis, kill soldiers, kill civilians, blow up oilwells, release VX everywhere, blow up palaces, and destroy everything.

Any comments? This is what i see them doing.

 

[Lao Tzu]

I predict the coalition will overthrow most of Iraq, except Baghdad.

The republican guard will hole themselves up in Baghdad, they will stay in apartment buildings putting themselves in the same buildings as civilians, and they will try to draw the war out for a long time.

The war will be one big hostage negotiation, except a city will be held hostage. All the while 'conscientious protestors' will call for Bush to be tried for war crimes while not saying the same should be done for saddam

 

[Frackal]

You think the republican guard will continue to fight even with a decapitated leadership?

ps I think saddams plan is to sneak into your bedroom at midnight and kiss you with his hairy moustache

 

[vinylgroover]

Nord i think you've way overanalysed the situation.

It's a matter of time before the Republican guard and most of the armed forces surrender.

The pressure the allied fores are applying......primarily psychological, has to be wearing them down.

I can't see this going much longer than the weekend or early next week. I could be wrong but i doubt it. Once one small division capitulates, the rest will follow.

 

[big_bad_buff]

If i was saddam, I would senda few soldiers to the US troops to surrender. and act like their giving up, and when they get close enough to our toops simply press a botton and blow the explosives strapped to their waists. sucide bomber style i gusss you would say. seems like it would be a easy way to kill if that's all he wants

 

[maximized]

thing is, like vinylgroover said, most of iraq is opposed to saddam. do you know all the things hes done? murdering, rape rooms, experiments, and so much more. they are just scared of him. the US doesnt expect much resistance until baghdad. and even so, if the publics views on the war goes down, so be it. do what they have to do. heres my predictions. tactically take out key targets. send in troops and surround him. there wont be as much killed as most expect, but it will happen. this is war. id gladly give my life to save others and im sure most of the troops are the same. my family and others disagree, they dont want their children dying, but if it must be done, it must.

max

 

[the nature boy]

I don't think he has very many plans left. I really think all of his wheelings and dealings were with the aim of trying to delay the war from happening.

as for the iraqi people, while they may not like saddam, nobody likes being invaded by a foreign power. nobody. and who knows how much the government controlled media has drilled in the mind of the iraqi people how evil we are.

 

[beastboy]

I was watching CNN last night and I wish most of the world could see what I saw. A reporter was in Dearborn, MI...the most Arab-American populated area in the US....some 350,000 Arab-Americans live here in Michigan......anyways to my point. The members were interviewed...not one of them protest this war. 75% of them have lost loved ones at the hands of Saddam, 1 even had his home bombed by the US during the first Gulf war, but holds no ill will torwards the US because he knew/knows what the US is trying to accomplish and feels it needs to be done. They also went on to say that the people in Iraq support this war.

I'm not denying the fact that the US is over there for more reasons then they state.....but at least one of the reasons is just.

 

[the nature boy]

I'm not denying the fact that the US is over there for more reasons then they state.....but at least one of the reasons is just.

who says we don't agree all the time.

 

[beastboy]

who says we don't agree all the time.

Is that primarily your gripe with this war? Are you in support of it for the reasons stated and anti for the ones not?

Don't take me the wrong way. I'm not trying to pinpoint your position or assume you are one vs. the other.....I'm just trying to feel you out.....and up.

 

[the nature boy]

I think it's all a power play over the oil, to be truthful. And as much as I'd like to think that we're doing this IN PART to liberate the iraqi people, I don't see that happening. There's going to be no democracy over there. It is not in the US interest to have a democracy in Iraq. What happens if the people of Iraq elect an anti american leader. What do we do then? Invade a democratic country? It is in the best interests of the US to put in a dictator that is pro-US. So really the people of Iraq will be stuck with a thug just like saddam, except he's buddy buddy with the US. That's how I see it, call me a glass half empty person.

 

[beastboy]

I see your point. We would not be over there if it didn't benefit us. But if someone donted a kidney for money and it saved someones life, I would be happy it saved someones life even though the person donating it was only doing it for the cash.

 

[muscle_geek]

The actual war will be over and regime change will be in effect by Monday. The reports are that the Iraqi people are expressing more freedom to speak and they are welcoming marines rather than fighting them when we have entered cities. Their will be no urban warfare whatsoever.

 

[beastboy]

Their will be no urban warfare whatsoever.

I wouldn't be so quick to say that.

 

[Lao Tzu]

Nord i think you've way overanalysed the situation.

It's a matter of time before the Republican guard and most of the armed forces surrender.

The pressure the allied fores are applying......primarily psychological, has to be wearing them down.

I can't see this going much longer than the weekend or early next week. I could be wrong but i doubt it. Once one small division capitulates, the rest will follow.

You just watch, everything is happening according to how i predicted it 5 days ago. Baghdad is being surrounded, and there are reports that there are concentric circles around baghdad and when allied troops move beyond them the Republican Guard has the OK to use WMD.

 

[Bigsatan13]

If i was saddam, I would senda few soldiers to the US troops to surrender. and act like their giving up, and when they get close enough to our toops simply press a botton and blow the explosives strapped to their waists. sucide bomber style i gusss you would say. seems like it would be a easy way to kill if that's all he wants

Congratulations, you think like an insane dictator. That is what he is doing.

 

[Frackal]

I agree on some points nav and will post more later, however given what happened to the uprisers during the last gulf war, (ie, we royally fucked them over), I doubt we'd win the trust again.

 

[danielson]

i think he;s sucking forces in and letting them come fowards, then all these towns that are being left 'untouched' will let all their militia/soldiers in civvies come out and bog forces down, now stretched out with long supply lines

i;d expect the supply lines to be hit....and a few more abductions....and probably a hell of a lot of urban fighting in the future, not just for bagdad. if these cities are constantly letting militants/soldiers attack coalition troops as they move past they will have to do something eventually

 

[beastboy]

We'll win this war. Saddamn will pull a Bin Laden, escape and we'll never know if he's alive or dead.

We'll also have a LOT of american casualties. To the point, that Americans will realize our military is not as invincible as we thought, and we got a lot of "back to the drawing board" tasks at hand when our troops go back.

-= nav =-

What do you consider allot? 1% is 3000. Trust me, I believe 1 is too many.

 

[Lao Tzu]

1. We'll win this war. Saddamn will pull a Bin Laden, escape and we'll never know if he's alive or dead.

2. We'll also have a LOT of american casualties. To the point, that Americans will realize our military is not as invincible as we thought, and we got a lot of "back to the drawing board" tasks at hand when our troops go back.

3. This would've been soo much easier, if the Bush Administration had done the same thing in Afghanistan, and tried to create a duplicate "People's Army of Iraq" using iraqi rebels, civilians, and defecting Iraqi soldiers to fight against Saddam. Most Iraqi soldiers are only fighting cuz they'll be killed if they defect or try to run away. If US soldiers spent MONTHS trying to draw them away from their camps, give them a new leader, train them, put them in new areas of the country, new weapons, and new missions -- the power of the force would be 100x stronger. Kinda like how the Northern Alliance and US Troops worked in Afghanistan. Which is why that task was so much easier.

4. if Bush had selected a new Iraqi president already, and used him to coerce and win over the Iraqi people and soldiers -- Saddam would seriously be worried.

5. This war is just being pushed WAYYY too fast, with not enough planning, and definately nto enough intelligence aobut the capability of the Iraqi force. And definately NOT enough training and quality control of american machinery. 25 people dead from US accidents/aircraft and only 10 from combat is pathetic.

-= nav =-

I doubt he'll escape, the guy can't live in caves forever like Bin Ladin.

2. Sadly, you may be right. The main reason is our unwillingness to target civilians with lethal force. I guess if this happens we will start spending 10x the money & effort looking for ways to debilitate enemy combatants instead of kill them so civilians won't be injured.

3. They don't trust us. We lied & said we would support them about 2 or 3 times so far. They rose up and were crushed. Besides, the Iraqi government is more repressive & omnipresent than Afghanistan's. Afghanistan was 1/2 under the power of local warlords instead of Taliban rule. Iraq is literally a police state.

4. not sure

5. yup.

 

[vixenbabe]

I somehow get the feeling Saddam is dead. I do not know why..I just have this feeling.

I think that the plan was if he got killed that one of his son's would take over, or perhaps the RG killed off the entire family and are running the "show" right now.

Face it..The RG has A LOT to loose when the power they held goes by-by! The party with or without him will die fighting for their "good life".

It all makes me sad...

 

[Warik]

At least we know he won't use chemical weapons on our troops. He doesn't have any, remember? The UN said so!

 

[danielson]

At least we know he won't use chemical weapons on our troops. He doesn't have any, remember? The UN said so!

we know (the UN) that he had pre-existing stocks of anthrax and VX

if anything else can be found or in higher numbers than allowed than that particular reason for the war will be justified.

though if him selling WMD to terrorists are justification for a war what are we gonna do about russia and all the eastern bloc countries?

 

[Lao Tzu]

Its only 180,000 actually. I think the other 100,000 aren't in the battle due to Turkeys refusal to allow ground troops. Anyway, most news agencies say there are only 180k.

besides, we've already overthrown much of the country. We just need weapons that debilitate instead of kill so countries that use civilians as human shields will lose their trump card.