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Stocks: Bird Flu

2

2ez

New member
There is a lot of talk about this. Concerns are worldwide and not just in one area of the world.


Lot of talk about not having an adequate amount of the vaccine. So here are a few stocks I have made a few dollars on:


SVA - Sinovac
NVAX - Novavax
BRCX - Biocryst
HEB - hemispherx


Let me know what you think. Has anyone heard from Genome lately ?
 
What about Roche (the company that makes Tamiflu)?
 
anthrax said:
What about Roche (the company that makes Tamiflu)?
Click to expand...


The Government is thinking about taking it's intellectual property (Patent). You know how they came out with the Government being able to take your property/home.......well now they are considering the same against corporations for patents, if it will help society as a whole.


Who is Bran and why has he not replied ?


Someone send an APB ! ! !
 
Have their stocks already risin substantially lately?

If so -- theri "expected" valuation has already been achieved.
 
Razorguns said:
Have their stocks already risin substantially lately?

If so -- theri "expected" valuation has already been achieved.
Click to expand...



I suggest doing a little due diligence before making the assumption that the wave is over.

consider SVA, they have a meeting in the beginning of November with the WHO. Now one can argue that they would not go before this entity unless they had something substantial to demonstrate.


And then look at NVAX...with it's recent strategic alliance.



IMO we may not be at the beginning, but it may not be to late to ride the wave.
 
2ez said:
I suggest doing a little due diligence before making the assumption that the wave is over.

consider SVA, they have a meeting in the beginning of November with the WHO. Now one can argue that they would not go before this entity unless they had something substantial to demonstrate.


And then look at NVAX...with it's recent strategic alliance.



IMO we may not be at the beginning, but it may not be to late to ride the wave.
Click to expand...

From what i gather -- the governm4nts will be in charge of stockpiling and selling supplies. That way they can adminster who gets it and who doesn't.

If it gets turned to the private sector (aside from pre-written contracts to produce them) -- prices would skyrocket like oil, and only the rich could afford them (assuming demand outstrips suply which it probably would).

So i doubt any one company could make billionws. If the government needs more -- they'll just hire more and more comapnies to produce it.
 
Razorguns said:
From what i gather -- the governm4nts will be in charge of stockpiling and selling supplies. That way they can adminster who gets it and who doesn't.

If it gets turned to the private sector (aside from pre-written contracts to produce them) -- prices would skyrocket like oil, and only the rich could afford them (assuming demand outstrips suply which it probably would).

So i doubt any one company could make billionws. If the government needs more -- they'll just hire more and more comapnies to produce it.
Click to expand...




The issue is world wide though....so we are dealing with more than just the American Government.
 
2ez said:
The issue is world wide though....so we are dealing with more than just the American Government.
Click to expand...

International stocks and stock markets aren't my thang. But look into it i suppose. A lot of these are governmnt to government deals (in order to bypass drug approval processes, etc.) -- so hard to fathom how it'll work in the private market. Once again, just turns into "speculation".
 
2ez said:
The Government is thinking about taking it's intellectual property (Patent). You know how they came out with the Government being able to take your property/home.......well now they are considering the same against corporations for patents, if it will help society as a whole.
Click to expand...
That is a very bad thing.
Brazil did that with the Aids cocktail. That is since people there can't pay for it. So the government violated the patent and produced it on its own.
While it sounds "humanly right" it negates the value of patents. And despite debates, there is a value to it.
If the US or any other country where patent laws are strictly followed it will be a very dangerous precedence.
Who is to say then what is the good of the people? Maybe if a private company violates commercial (lets say software) patents to produce a free utility, it will be considered the good of the people? Or maybe only governments can do that? So it will be ok for governments to start companies that all they do is make money by violating commercially viable patents?
Dangerous slope I'd say.

As for the stocks.. Roche stock is actually down in the last 2 weeks.
However, it might be just a result of the uncertainty around the situation. Time will tell..

2ez said:
The Government is thinking about taking it's intellectual property (Patent). You know how they came out with the Government being able to take your property/home.......well now they are considering the same against corporations for patents, if it will help society as a whole.
Click to expand...
That is a very bad thing.
Brazil did that with the Aids cocktail. That is since people there can't pay for it. So the government violated the patent and produced it on its own.
While it sounds "humanly right" it negates the value of patents. And despite debates, there is a value to it.
If the US or any other country where patent laws are strictly followed it will be a very dangerous precedence.
Who is to say then what is the good of the people? Maybe if a private company violates commercial (lets say software) patents to produce a free utility, it will be considered the good of the people? Or maybe only governments can do that? So it will be ok for governments to start companies that all they do is make money by violating commercially viable patents?
Dangerous slope I'd say.

As for the stocks.. Roche stock is actually down in the last 2 weeks.
However, it might be just a result of the uncertainty around the situation. Time will tell..
 
Look, most of the deaths attributed to the influenza epidemic, almost a century ago, has been determined to have come from birds. However, most of those deaths were due to TB due to weakened immune systems from the flu. Invest in pharmaceutical comapanies that make antibiotics. They will be the ones in demand.

Zig
 
ziggyziggy said:
Look, most of the deaths attributed to the influenza epidemic, almost a century ago, has been determined to have come from birds. However, most of those deaths were due to TB due to weakened immune systems from the flu. Invest in pharmaceutical comapanies that make antibiotics. They will be the ones in demand.

Zig
Click to expand...



Seems like a vaccine would be more useful that antibiotics. What happens if an infection or occurrence is caught to late ?
 
Pay attention to the last paragraph.....





Novavax Shares Surge on Bird Flu Fears
Tuesday October 25, 4:24 pm ET
Novavax Shares Surge on Second Straight Day After Confirmed Cases of Bird Flu Outside Asia

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biotech company Novavax Inc. surged for the second consecutive day Tuesday, following a weekend where the avian flu virus H5N1 was identified in birds in Turkey, Romania and Russia and a dead parrot imported to Britain from South America was found to have been carrying the virus.
Novavax shares jumped $1.38, or 33 percent, to close at $5.53 on the Nasdaq, after reaching a new 52-week high of $5.88, at nearly 12 times their average volume. Shares closed up 10 percent on Monday, and started surging in August from a 52-week low of 70 cents, when the company presented animal data showing their vaccine could protect animals against avian flu.

Share prices edged slightly in after-market activity, down 7 cents to $5.46.

The company also announced in September that it would collaborate with Somerset, N.J.-based Wave Biotech to try to develop a way to produce its Virus-Like Particle avian flu vaccine on a commercial scale. The VLP imitates a virus to elicit an immune response, but cannot infect cells because it lacks the genetic material of a virus, unlike standard vaccines.

In an investor note on Friday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Trbovich upgraded Novavax to "Sector Perform" from "Underperform" and raised his target price to $3 from $1, after the company received a recent $12.5 million license and supply agreement from Esprit Pharma for the Estrasorb topical estrogen therapy.

However, the analyst also noted that fears of avian flu could focus attention on the VLP technology, which could possibly create quick versions of vaccines for mutated flu strains.

As evidenced in last year's flu vaccine shortages in the United States, vaccine-making suffers from the drawback of long ramp-up times, where the product must be incubated over months at a time using century-old chicken egg-based technology.

"If the company can be in human testing of the vaccine in early 2006, they will likely attract additional attention from the U.S. government or prospective partners," Trbovich told investors. "A partnership or significant U.S. government grant would additionally bolster our confidence in the program and NVAX's cash reserves. We believe that the media and political fervor surrounding avian flu will likely increase as we move farther into traditional flu season."
 
BoardTracker said:
That is a very bad thing.
Brazil did that with the Aids cocktail. That is since people there can't pay for it. So the government violated the patent and produced it on its own.
While it sounds "humanly right" it negates the value of patents. And despite debates, there is a value to it.
If the US or any other country where patent laws are strictly followed it will be a very dangerous precedence.
Who is to say then what is the good of the people? Maybe if a private company violates commercial (lets say software) patents to produce a free utility, it will be considered the good of the people? Or maybe only governments can do that? So it will be ok for governments to start companies that all they do is make money by violating commercially viable patents?
Dangerous slope I'd say.

As for the stocks.. Roche stock is actually down in the last 2 weeks.
However, it might be just a result of the uncertainty around the situation. Time will tell..


That is a very bad thing.
Brazil did that with the Aids cocktail. That is since people there can't pay for it. So the government violated the patent and produced it on its own.
While it sounds "humanly right" it negates the value of patents. And despite debates, there is a value to it.
If the US or any other country where patent laws are strictly followed it will be a very dangerous precedence.
Who is to say then what is the good of the people? Maybe if a private company violates commercial (lets say software) patents to produce a free utility, it will be considered the good of the people? Or maybe only governments can do that? So it will be ok for governments to start companies that all they do is make money by violating commercially viable patents?
Dangerous slope I'd say.

As for the stocks.. Roche stock is actually down in the last 2 weeks.
However, it might be just a result of the uncertainty around the situation. Time will tell..
Click to expand...
:heart:
 
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