sawastea - thoughts?

[Lestat]

Analysts are corret 65% of the time with their predictions during bullish market times, however they are only correct 15% of the time during a bear market.

What do you think about that?

 

[SoreArms]

bulls and bears, that sounds like gay talk

 

[Lestat]

bulls and bears, that sounds like gay talk

if anyone could geigh up investment talk, it'd be you.

 

[sawastea]

Many factors are involved. Right now we are in an interesting situation with rising IR and a 10 basis pt spread in bonds. Housing seems to have stalled and history shows October is usually the worst month for the S&P, while December is the best. We are at a 2 year high vs the Euro and a 14mth high vs the Yen and Sterling Pound. I'm optimistic in the future and I'm always bullish, even in bear markets. I actually like to buy more in downturns then fold like a dirty . The CPI is rising and consumer confidence is somewhat high, but yesterday was an off day due to hearing Bernanke say he will follow Greenspan's footsteps, which the market did not want to hear. The exchanges and commodies exchanges are booming (BOT/ICE) and the stock exchange will go public shortly. I think we're also doing well since the 'cold' weather hasn't really hit us *yet*.

 

[Lestat]

Many factors are involved. Right now we are in an interesting situation with rising IR and a 10 basis pt spread in bonds. Housing seems to have stalled and history shows October is usually the worst month for the S&P, while December is the best. We are at a 2 year high vs the Euro and a 14mth high vs the Yen and Sterling Pound. I'm optimistic in the future and I'm always bullish, even in bear markets. I actually like to buy more in downturns then fold like a dirty . The CPI is rising and consumer confidence is somewhat high, but yesterday was an off day due to hearing Bernanke say he will follow Greenspan's footsteps, which the market did not want to hear. The exchanges and commodies exchanges are booming (BOT/ICE) and the stock exchange will go public shortly. I think we're also doing well since the 'cold' weather hasn't really hit us *yet*.

I'd say the biggest unknown is the housing market.

Supposedly its created 5 trillion in wealth and has lead to robust spending, heavier debt loads, and an increase in jobs in the real estate industry.

The realtors are telling us that it will never go down, that gains will simply come slower then in recent years, others are saying it will cause the entire economy to slump and we'll see a huge fallout including a federal bail out.

The fact that analysts such as yourself are ALWAYS bullish pretty much guarentees you will be dead wrong for a substantial portion of the time. Setting more reasonable expectations might be what is needed to hold off a recession.

 

[sawastea]

The fact that analysts such as yourself are ALWAYS bullish pretty much guarentees you will be dead wrong for a substantial portion of the time. Setting more reasonable expectations might be what is needed to hold off a recession.

Just because I'm bullish doesn't mean we cannot tell when a recession hits. I find downturns, such as post 9/11 for a time to really dig into some great companies at a fraction of what they cost. I don't panic and sell. I will re-evaluate certain parts of my portfolio. Remember that analysts are like weathermen. We are only correct part of the time and get paid to say whatever the fuck we want and push whatever companies we get paid to push

 

[Lestat]

Just because I'm bullish doesn't mean we cannot tell when a recession hits. I find downturns, such as post 9/11 for a time to really dig into some great companies at a fraction of what they cost. I don't panic and sell. I will re-evaluate certain parts of my portfolio. Remember that analysts are like weathermen. We are only correct part of the time and get paid to say whatever the fuck we want and push whatever companies we get paid to push

at least you are honest about it.