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bran987
New member
HYPOTHESIS: When Dow falls below 10,000 (or whatever point at which all chickens come home to roost) Buy REIT's that hold existing apartment properties.
1) Construction costs are rising, making development of new homes/apartments more expensive, thereby raising the value of existing homes/apartments.
2) Apartment DEVELOPERS are therefore not a good play, costs are rising on their business offsetting the coming increase in rents.
3) Lenders have tightened qualification standards on people who are most likely to be on the rent/buy fence, hundreds of thousands of people tossed into for foreclosure each month aren't even close to qualifying to buy a home.
4) The apartment rent increase trend has now been intact for 2 quarters, providing further support for the thesis of a trend which will dramatically increase the value of existing apartment properties.
5) Inflation is now an inevitable conclusion and is here to stay. Historically, apartment rents at least have mirrored every increase of the CPI during inflationary periods.
6) When the market falls, everyone becomes bloodied. Good companies and bad. Over the next 3-12 months stocks will be pulled down as they always are regardless of merit. Apartment REIT's included. Watch for this phenomenon as the value of these companies rise the worse things yet. This is the wait part.
7) As a bonus, The Echo Boomer trend is now fully underway, the largest 20-25 year old age group since the Baby Boomers are entering the period at which they would be either renting or buying their 1st home, and over the next 12 months we all know what that choice is.
8) Banks and Oil are what are going to allow all stocks to go to shit because ALT-A and Pay Option ARMS are bigger than Subprime ever was, and delinquincies on those type of loans went from 15% to 22% last month. A government bailout far exceeding what was passed last week will be coming before it's all over.
So, I'm about to start researching this.
You could go to all this trouble, or you could just go long oil baby.
1) Construction costs are rising, making development of new homes/apartments more expensive, thereby raising the value of existing homes/apartments.
2) Apartment DEVELOPERS are therefore not a good play, costs are rising on their business offsetting the coming increase in rents.
3) Lenders have tightened qualification standards on people who are most likely to be on the rent/buy fence, hundreds of thousands of people tossed into for foreclosure each month aren't even close to qualifying to buy a home.
4) The apartment rent increase trend has now been intact for 2 quarters, providing further support for the thesis of a trend which will dramatically increase the value of existing apartment properties.
5) Inflation is now an inevitable conclusion and is here to stay. Historically, apartment rents at least have mirrored every increase of the CPI during inflationary periods.
6) When the market falls, everyone becomes bloodied. Good companies and bad. Over the next 3-12 months stocks will be pulled down as they always are regardless of merit. Apartment REIT's included. Watch for this phenomenon as the value of these companies rise the worse things yet. This is the wait part.
7) As a bonus, The Echo Boomer trend is now fully underway, the largest 20-25 year old age group since the Baby Boomers are entering the period at which they would be either renting or buying their 1st home, and over the next 12 months we all know what that choice is.
8) Banks and Oil are what are going to allow all stocks to go to shit because ALT-A and Pay Option ARMS are bigger than Subprime ever was, and delinquincies on those type of loans went from 15% to 22% last month. A government bailout far exceeding what was passed last week will be coming before it's all over.
So, I'm about to start researching this.
You could go to all this trouble, or you could just go long oil baby.
