June 4, 2002
Cato Expert Finds Federal Climate Study in Error
WASHINGTON-Today, President Bush downplayed a recent EPA report on global warming. According to the Associated Press, "'I read the report put out by the bureaucracy,' Bush said dismissively Tuesday..."
Patrick J. Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at Cato Institute and reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said, "The report, the so-called 2002 Climate Action Plan, drew heavily from a previous report, the U.S. National Assessment of global warming, which was rushed to publication 10 days before the 2000 presidential election. That report was commissioned by Vice President Gore and Clinton science adviser John Gibbons, who hand-picked the senior scientists constituting the 'Synthesis Team.'"
Michaels, also a professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, reviewed both reports. He found that the two climate models used as the bases for each performed worse than a table of random numbers when applied to the history of United States temperatures as the greenhouse effect has changed. Michaels concluded, "Continued use of a scientific model that cannot replicate reality is counter to the most basic principle of science."
Even so, the National Assessment "Synthesis Team" chose to publicly ignore Michaels' criticism. In private, however, they repeated his calculation and found that the models indeed were no better than random numbers applied to the U.S. temperature history.
Of the 2002 Climate Action Plan, Michaels says, "It is clear that the integrity of science would have been better served if this report had never been released. But now that it has, it should focus public discussion on whether or not it is appropriate to use computer models that demonstrably do not work when making public policy."