huh???
forecast = estimate of the future
speculation = greed while thinking about the future
i.e. NOT based on supply and demand of oil
the only limit is refining capacity. Since there is more than enough oil to supply the refineries, the price swings of gasoline should be dependent on its own supply, not on the price swings of oil (which shouldn't be having such price swings in the first place).
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Excerpt from last month's Wall Street Journal
http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2006/...is-cite-market-forces-for-lower-crude-output/
Kingdom Denies Any Effort
To Curb Global Oil Supply;
Stores Are Near Capacity
By BHUSHAN BAHREE
June 5, 2006
CARACAS, Venezuela — Saudi Arabia’s oil minister confirmed that his country’s massive crude-oil output has declined in recent months, but he attributed the trend to a drop in demand and denied the kingdom is aiming to limit supply.
In an interview after a meeting here of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi said other
cartel members are having trouble finding buyers for all the crude they are producing, at a time when global stores are near full and many refiners have closed facilities for routine maintenance. One Saudi official said an estimated three million barrels a day of refining capacity is out of action and unable to process crude, at a time when the world is using some 84 million barrels a day of oil products like gasoline and jet fuel.
“It’s not just heavy oil. Even light oil is having problems” finding buyers, Mr. Naimi said, referring to premium grades of crude known as light crude that are highly prized by refiners because they have high gasoline yields.
Asked if the kingdom was easing up on supply because of concern about the buildup of inventories in the U.S. and other importing countries, Mr. Naimi rejected such a motive, replying: “At $70 a barrel?” Mr. Naimi suggested that producers will sell all the oil they can at such high prices.
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you're gonna have to come at me harder than that, son. Go read something.