My estimations....
Hengst said:
1. The war in Iraq is going to go very badly. Saddam is going to lure the americans in and then gas them all. Tens of thousands will die.
2. Al queda will hit the US mainland, again, with another terrifing assault.
3. George Bush and his cronies, unable to put the lid back on to the mess they started by being the aggressor in Iraq, will declare Martial Law in the United States. He will suspend the constitution and all of our civil liberties.
4. The next presidential election may or may not happen. The powers behind Bush will use what ever means they have to further subvert the political process and guarrentee them selves continued power.
You are part right, and you are part nieve.
1. This Iraq war will likely be the first shot of WWIII. You proposal of what Saddam will do is very likely. He's done it to his own people, and it's the "logical" tactic for a person in his position...the Scorched Earth policy.
Note: For a Frenchman, your proposal is contrary to most Frenchmen's opinion that we shouldn't act. If you say Saddam would use bio/chem weapons on US soldiers, you are asserting he has them (in violation of UN resolutions) which actually authorizes us to go in and use force to remove them.
2. No doubt the USA will get a wave of domestic terrorism. That's well-known by those who do know what's going on. How bad it will be is the variable still unknown. We know what they likely have...just not how much or where they'll use it.
3. Any domestic terrorism will be used to justify martial law. Oh, and Gore would be no different. The Democrats have done just as much to strip Americans of their Constitutional rights as Republicans have. The real political power is in the wealthy, and they've been calling the shots for decades.
4. The next election would likely happen with no problems. A bad war will actually tend to generate support for the president. Here's why....the rest of the world are wussies. Not to be mean, but the UN overwhealmingly said Saddam must be stopped. It's clear there is no accounting for what happened to his WMD program. He doesn't say he got rid of it, nor can he document such a claim. Iraq's a big place....he's had lots of time to hide stuff, and he's done little to nothing to cooperate with UN inspectors....further violating UN resolutions.
However, the UN likely will not endorse any more resolutions against Iraq. As France has said, "no" and they have veto power, we know this is a foregone conclusion. The USA will act with maybe a couple allies, and the American citizens will despise the world when bad stuff happens and the world does nothing to assist. Remember, the USA has given aid to many nations in times of need. When the USA has a national emergency (flood, earthquake, etc.) the rest of the world won't even send a bottle of water. It will become and US vs. THEM mentality....in part because of the world's mentality about facing the threat of terrorism with solidarity.
Going more on your first point....there are many nations itching for war. The USA is keeping China from taking Taiwan by force. The USA was keeping N. Korea stable. The USA was getting Pakistan and India to not nuke each other to kingdom come. If we get bogged down in Iraq, these nations will likely try to take advantage of our being "distracted" and carry out their own agendas....throwing the world into war. The USA will not be starting the global agression. China, N. Korea, will be acting as lawless agressors. India and Pakistan will be mutually exterminating each other. They will only be taking advantage of the USA being too involved elsewhere to interferre.
In all this, where is the UN? The "organization of global peace" has utterly failed. Does the UN keep China at bay? No. Heck, they took the soverign veto power from Taiwan and gave it to communist China in appeasement. Does the UN try to hold back N. Korea? No. What has the UN done to prevent India and Pakistan from nuking each other? Little to nothing.
The USA (with all its flaws) has done more to preserve peace in the world than the UN ever has, yet we are villified when we have 100% justification to begin an active effort to permanently erradicate terrorism and the regimes that support them from this world.
Isn't that hypocritical of the UN?