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The GOP Lock [Congress will be in GOP hands for next decade, and become even more conservative]
Enterprise Online ^ | March 2003 Issue | Grover Norquist
On November 4, 1952, the Republican Party elected a President and captured both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This period of united Republican government lasted only until 1954, when the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Those were the last years the GOP had extended control of our national government —until the November 2002 election. This time, however, the Republicans have gained control of the House and Senate not for two years, but for at least a decade.
Over the next ten years, all of Congress is likely to remain in GOP hands. In fact, both houses will become more Republican and more conservative. Five separate factors will push in that direction.
First, the most recent round of redistricting solidifies Republicans. We now know the shape, size, and political complexion of most of the 435 House districts, and they will remain unchanged until the 2012 lection. Most Congressional seats are redistricted to protect incumbents; competitive races rarely take place. In 2002, only seven incumbents lost elections. Fully 360 House members won 55 percent of the vote or more—a walkaway. In races where the winner merely eked out a victory, Republicans won 11 times and Democrats 18.
The remaining changes in Congressional districts promise additional benefit to the GOP. There are three states that had districts imposed on them by a court (because the parties could not agree on boundaries) which now have one-party control of the governor’s mansion and state legislature. As a result, Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma will now be redistricted to partisan advantage. The latter two are Democrat-controlled. But Texas, now all-GOP, is vastly more populous.
Texas has 32 House seats—currently 15 Republicans and 17 Democrats. After the map is redrawn the Lone Star state may end up with 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats. New Mexico, which has three seats, and Oklahoma, which has five, will try to shift in the other direction, but they will be able to squeeze out two or three new Democratic seats only if the state governments want to tangle with Republican senators.
The second factor favoring Republicans is that, unlike in 1952 or 1980, the 280 Republican members of the House and Senate weren’t ushered in as part of some unusual partisan landslide. Following on GOP landslides in 1954, 1982, and 1994, weak members that won simply by riding on their party’s coattails were culled from the herd in subsequent elections. There are no remaining weak Republicans.
Third, as senior Democrats retire from Congress over the coming years, many of their districts will flip to a Republican, regardless of who runs. The GOP stands to gain seven seats this way. Their counterparts, Republicans hanging on to Democratic seats, have been winnowed down over the years to the point where Jim Leach of Iowa is now the only Republican holding down a seat in an obvious Democratic district.
Fourth, the Republican majority promises to become more conservative, as previous-generation Republicans who vote more to the left gradually retire and are replaced by younger GOP members more in keeping with their conservative districts. New York’s Sherwood Boehlert, Michigan’s Fred Upton, and Maryland’s Wayne Gilchrist, for example, would actually do better in elections if they voted more conservatively. Their eventual replacements will. Most “moderate” Democratic members of Congress are liberals who live in conservative districts. Most “moderate” Republicans, on the other hand, cast votes based on their own worldview—not their district’s.
Fifth, the very nature of the Senate will help the GOP in the years ahead. In the very close Bush/Gore race of 2000, George W. Bush carried 30 states and Al Gore carried 20. Over time, therefore, one would expect the Senate to have roughly 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats. It’s an anomaly that, today, four Democrats represent Republican majority North and South Dakota. Republicans hold the governor’s mansion and legislature in Florida, but the state still sends two Democrats to the Senate. How long can Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina continue to send Democratic senators to Washington?
With Republican control of Congress assured, and President Bush likely to run the executive branch for another six years, many of the fiercest political battles in the years ahead will be fought over something different altogether: over control of the federal judiciary—our least democratic branch of government.
Enterprise Online ^ | March 2003 Issue | Grover Norquist
On November 4, 1952, the Republican Party elected a President and captured both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This period of united Republican government lasted only until 1954, when the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Those were the last years the GOP had extended control of our national government —until the November 2002 election. This time, however, the Republicans have gained control of the House and Senate not for two years, but for at least a decade.
Over the next ten years, all of Congress is likely to remain in GOP hands. In fact, both houses will become more Republican and more conservative. Five separate factors will push in that direction.
First, the most recent round of redistricting solidifies Republicans. We now know the shape, size, and political complexion of most of the 435 House districts, and they will remain unchanged until the 2012 lection. Most Congressional seats are redistricted to protect incumbents; competitive races rarely take place. In 2002, only seven incumbents lost elections. Fully 360 House members won 55 percent of the vote or more—a walkaway. In races where the winner merely eked out a victory, Republicans won 11 times and Democrats 18.
The remaining changes in Congressional districts promise additional benefit to the GOP. There are three states that had districts imposed on them by a court (because the parties could not agree on boundaries) which now have one-party control of the governor’s mansion and state legislature. As a result, Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma will now be redistricted to partisan advantage. The latter two are Democrat-controlled. But Texas, now all-GOP, is vastly more populous.
Texas has 32 House seats—currently 15 Republicans and 17 Democrats. After the map is redrawn the Lone Star state may end up with 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats. New Mexico, which has three seats, and Oklahoma, which has five, will try to shift in the other direction, but they will be able to squeeze out two or three new Democratic seats only if the state governments want to tangle with Republican senators.
The second factor favoring Republicans is that, unlike in 1952 or 1980, the 280 Republican members of the House and Senate weren’t ushered in as part of some unusual partisan landslide. Following on GOP landslides in 1954, 1982, and 1994, weak members that won simply by riding on their party’s coattails were culled from the herd in subsequent elections. There are no remaining weak Republicans.
Third, as senior Democrats retire from Congress over the coming years, many of their districts will flip to a Republican, regardless of who runs. The GOP stands to gain seven seats this way. Their counterparts, Republicans hanging on to Democratic seats, have been winnowed down over the years to the point where Jim Leach of Iowa is now the only Republican holding down a seat in an obvious Democratic district.
Fourth, the Republican majority promises to become more conservative, as previous-generation Republicans who vote more to the left gradually retire and are replaced by younger GOP members more in keeping with their conservative districts. New York’s Sherwood Boehlert, Michigan’s Fred Upton, and Maryland’s Wayne Gilchrist, for example, would actually do better in elections if they voted more conservatively. Their eventual replacements will. Most “moderate” Democratic members of Congress are liberals who live in conservative districts. Most “moderate” Republicans, on the other hand, cast votes based on their own worldview—not their district’s.
Fifth, the very nature of the Senate will help the GOP in the years ahead. In the very close Bush/Gore race of 2000, George W. Bush carried 30 states and Al Gore carried 20. Over time, therefore, one would expect the Senate to have roughly 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats. It’s an anomaly that, today, four Democrats represent Republican majority North and South Dakota. Republicans hold the governor’s mansion and legislature in Florida, but the state still sends two Democrats to the Senate. How long can Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina continue to send Democratic senators to Washington?
With Republican control of Congress assured, and President Bush likely to run the executive branch for another six years, many of the fiercest political battles in the years ahead will be fought over something different altogether: over control of the federal judiciary—our least democratic branch of government.
