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Stock Market Guru's

What's happened to you? Perhaps ATW has a kitteh :jenscat who could help! If not, I might be able to. :p
 
if you're a long term investor, you should probably hold on.

I think the stat was that pick any 5 year period in the last 50 years and if you bought on any given day you woud have an 80% chance of being profitable. bull market bear market. no matter. I may have the exact stat wrong, but you get the point.
 
I think there is a possibility the US Stock market could be making a longer term top. This of course does not bode well for stocks, especially people who believe in holding stock for the long run.

Just remember that the fact the stock market has always gone up in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will always go up in the future. The US is losing its position as the #1 economy in the world and there is only one place to go, and that is down.

I am long precious metals and also have a basket of foreign currencies. I have some money in some emerging market funds but I believe I may need to lighten my exposure to that this year.

Also, one may think the stock market made a new high this past year but that is only in nominal terms. If one values, say the DJIA, in respect to the value of the dollar, it has gone down since the year 2000. Its real (not nominal value) is approximately close to 10,000 which shows that all of those stocks are actually worth less than they were in 2000.

I read a ton of blogs and follow this stuff actively (and actively manage my own portfolio). Here is a good link: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
 
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