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My buddy just got married 5 days ago in Vegas. The next day his wife and him were at each other's throats. Yesterday, he spent the whole day and night in a bar because of multiple vicious fights they had throughout the day.
So, you're probably thinking 'why did these two get married?!?!'
Well, they have a year and a half old kid.
With statistic's as they are... that's a pretty bad reason to get married. Just because you sign a piece of paper doesn't make all your problems go away.
So... here are the stat's in the U.S.
THE DIVORCE RATE
1. PER CAPITA ANNUAL. The last-reported U.S. divorce rate of which we are aware is 0.41% per capita per year, the provisional estimate for the year 2000 from the National Center for Health Statistics. Since every divorce involves two people, the percentage becomes somewhat more meaningful if you double it. A rate per married people, instead of per straight population, would be even more helpful. Source: Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 49, No. 6
2. RAW NUMBERS. The Center has released total state and regional marriage and divorce numbers (not the same thing as rates) for the years 2000, 1999 and 1998. They cover 47 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico, but they do not include California, Indiana and Louisiana, because those states do not count divorces.
The total numbers of U.S. divorces (excluding the three non-counting states) reported finalized annually are 957,200 in 2000, 944,317 in 1999, and 947,384 in 1998.
The total numbers of U.S. marriages (including those three states) reported celebrated annually are 2,355,005 in 2000, 2,366,623 in 1999, and 2,267,854 in 1998.
Chart of all states and regions from this report.
3. PROJECTION/PREDICTION. This is the Census Bureau's often-cited "50%" rate, which has since been revised downward to roughly 43% by the National Center for Health Statistics but was moved back up to around 50% by the Census Bureau in 2002, with even more ifs ands and buts than usual:
"The National Center for Health Statistics
recently released a report which found that 43
percent of first marriages end in separation or
divorce within 15 years. The study is based on
the National Survey of Family Growth, a nationally
representative sample of women age 15 to
44 in 1995. Bramlett, Matthew and William
Mosher. "First marriage dissolution, divorce, and
remariage: United States," Advance Data From
Vital and Health Statistics; No.323. Hyattsville
MD: National Center for Health Statistics: 2 1.
"Data in the Census report were collected from
both men and women, age 15 and over, and a
different methodology was used than in the
NCHS report.
"About 50% of first marriages
for men under age 45 may end in
divorce, and between 44 and 52%
of women's first marriages
may end in divorce for these age
groups. The likelihood of a divorce
is lowest for men and women age
60, for whom 36 % of men
and 32 percent of women may
divorce from their first marriage by
the end of their lives. A similar statistical
exercise was performed in
1975 using marital history data
from the Current Population Survey
(CPS). Projections based on those
data implied that about one-third of
married persons who were 25 to 35
years old in 1975 would end their
first marriage in divorce.
"This cohort of people, who in 1996 were
about 45 to 55 years old, had
already exceeded these projections
as about 40% of men and
women in these ages had divorced
from their first marriage. Current
projections now indicate that the
proportion could be as high as
50% for persons now in their early forties."
Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields, "Number, Timing, and Duration of
Marriages and Divorces: 1996", U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports, February 2002, p. 18.
This kind of thing is probably the best estimate statisticians can come up with, but it is only a prediction of how many people currently entering their first marriages will ever get divorced. It is a very rough estimate even if current trends continue unchanged, but it is also subject to change if divorce becomes more or less popular or available. For a more detailed exploration of the nature of this and other divorce rates, see an article on the PREP, Inc. web site.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When do People Divorce?
"Marriages are most susceptible to
divorce in the early years of marriage.
After 5 years, approximately
10 % of marriages are expected
to end in divorce - another
10 % (or 20 % cumulatively)
are divorced by about the
tenth year after marriage. However,
the 30% level is not reached
until about the 18th year after
marriage while the 40% level is
only approached by the 50th year
after marriage."
Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields, "Number, Timing, and Duration of
Marriages and Divorces: 1996", U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports, February 2002, p. 18.
"In 1994, 4.6 of every 1,000 Americans divorced. ... Currently, divorce laws in almost every state give greater legal rights to spouses who want to end the marriage than to spouses who want to try to work out their marital problems. According to FRC's 1995 Family Issues Survey, 55 percent of the American public want to see these laws modified to offer greater protection to spouses interested in saving the marriage. " Quoted from the Family Research Council's State-by-state divorce rates 1994
The divorce rate has quadrupled from 4.3 million in 1970 to 18.3 million in 1996.
Quoted from Census Bureau's release about its MARITAL STATUS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
"14% of white women who married in the 1940s eventually divorced. A single generation later, almost 50 percent of those that married in the late sixties and early seventies have already divorced. ... Between 1970 and 1992, the proportion of babies born outside of marriage leaped from 11% to 30%."
Amara Bachu, Fertility of American Women: June 1994 (Washington D.C.: Bureau of the Census, September 1995), xix, Table K. Cited on page5 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
"According to the National Center for Health Statitics (1988: 2-5), the divorce rate rose from 2.5 per 1000 population in 1965 to 3.5 in 1970 to 4.8 in 1975."
"No-Fault Divorce: Proposed Solutions to a National Tragedy," 1993 Journal of Legal Studies 2, 15, citing National Center for Health Statistics, 1988, 2-5, cited by Thomas B. Marvell, Divorce Rates and the Fault Requirement, 23 Law & Society Review 544, n.4, (1989).
Divorce increased almost 40 percent from 1970 to 1975.
Brian Willats, Breaking Up is Easy To Do, available from Michigan Family Forum, citing Statistics from National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Cited in Kenneth Jost and Marilyn Robinson, "Children and Divorce:What can be done to help children of divorce," CQ Researcher, June 7, 1991, pp. 353, 357.
The marriage rate has fallen nearly 30% since 1970 and the divorce rate has increased about 40%.
Ahlburg and DeVita, "New Realities," 4-12. Cited on page 5 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
"Over the past 30 years a consistent 96% of the American public has expressed a personal desire for marriage. Only 8% of American women consider remaining single ideal, a proportion that has not changed over the past twenty years. Almost three-quarters of adult Americans believe that "marriage is a lifelong commitment that should not be ended except under extreme circumstances." Even 81% of divorced and separate Americans still believe that marriage should be for life."
Rebuilding the Nest: A New Commitment to the American Family, ed. David Blankehorn, Steve Bayme, and Jean Bethke (Milwaukee, WI: Family Service America, c. 1990), 97-98. Cited on page 8 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
65% of new marriages fail.
Teresa Castro Martin and Larry L. Bumpass, "Recent Trends in Marital Disruption", Demography 26 (1989): 37-51. Cited on page5 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
So, you're probably thinking 'why did these two get married?!?!'
Well, they have a year and a half old kid.
With statistic's as they are... that's a pretty bad reason to get married. Just because you sign a piece of paper doesn't make all your problems go away.
So... here are the stat's in the U.S.
THE DIVORCE RATE
1. PER CAPITA ANNUAL. The last-reported U.S. divorce rate of which we are aware is 0.41% per capita per year, the provisional estimate for the year 2000 from the National Center for Health Statistics. Since every divorce involves two people, the percentage becomes somewhat more meaningful if you double it. A rate per married people, instead of per straight population, would be even more helpful. Source: Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 49, No. 6
2. RAW NUMBERS. The Center has released total state and regional marriage and divorce numbers (not the same thing as rates) for the years 2000, 1999 and 1998. They cover 47 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico, but they do not include California, Indiana and Louisiana, because those states do not count divorces.
The total numbers of U.S. divorces (excluding the three non-counting states) reported finalized annually are 957,200 in 2000, 944,317 in 1999, and 947,384 in 1998.
The total numbers of U.S. marriages (including those three states) reported celebrated annually are 2,355,005 in 2000, 2,366,623 in 1999, and 2,267,854 in 1998.
Chart of all states and regions from this report.
3. PROJECTION/PREDICTION. This is the Census Bureau's often-cited "50%" rate, which has since been revised downward to roughly 43% by the National Center for Health Statistics but was moved back up to around 50% by the Census Bureau in 2002, with even more ifs ands and buts than usual:
"The National Center for Health Statistics
recently released a report which found that 43
percent of first marriages end in separation or
divorce within 15 years. The study is based on
the National Survey of Family Growth, a nationally
representative sample of women age 15 to
44 in 1995. Bramlett, Matthew and William
Mosher. "First marriage dissolution, divorce, and
remariage: United States," Advance Data From
Vital and Health Statistics; No.323. Hyattsville
MD: National Center for Health Statistics: 2 1.
"Data in the Census report were collected from
both men and women, age 15 and over, and a
different methodology was used than in the
NCHS report.
"About 50% of first marriages
for men under age 45 may end in
divorce, and between 44 and 52%
of women's first marriages
may end in divorce for these age
groups. The likelihood of a divorce
is lowest for men and women age
60, for whom 36 % of men
and 32 percent of women may
divorce from their first marriage by
the end of their lives. A similar statistical
exercise was performed in
1975 using marital history data
from the Current Population Survey
(CPS). Projections based on those
data implied that about one-third of
married persons who were 25 to 35
years old in 1975 would end their
first marriage in divorce.
"This cohort of people, who in 1996 were
about 45 to 55 years old, had
already exceeded these projections
as about 40% of men and
women in these ages had divorced
from their first marriage. Current
projections now indicate that the
proportion could be as high as
50% for persons now in their early forties."
Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields, "Number, Timing, and Duration of
Marriages and Divorces: 1996", U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports, February 2002, p. 18.
This kind of thing is probably the best estimate statisticians can come up with, but it is only a prediction of how many people currently entering their first marriages will ever get divorced. It is a very rough estimate even if current trends continue unchanged, but it is also subject to change if divorce becomes more or less popular or available. For a more detailed exploration of the nature of this and other divorce rates, see an article on the PREP, Inc. web site.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When do People Divorce?
"Marriages are most susceptible to
divorce in the early years of marriage.
After 5 years, approximately
10 % of marriages are expected
to end in divorce - another
10 % (or 20 % cumulatively)
are divorced by about the
tenth year after marriage. However,
the 30% level is not reached
until about the 18th year after
marriage while the 40% level is
only approached by the 50th year
after marriage."
Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields, "Number, Timing, and Duration of
Marriages and Divorces: 1996", U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports, February 2002, p. 18.
"In 1994, 4.6 of every 1,000 Americans divorced. ... Currently, divorce laws in almost every state give greater legal rights to spouses who want to end the marriage than to spouses who want to try to work out their marital problems. According to FRC's 1995 Family Issues Survey, 55 percent of the American public want to see these laws modified to offer greater protection to spouses interested in saving the marriage. " Quoted from the Family Research Council's State-by-state divorce rates 1994
The divorce rate has quadrupled from 4.3 million in 1970 to 18.3 million in 1996.
Quoted from Census Bureau's release about its MARITAL STATUS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
"14% of white women who married in the 1940s eventually divorced. A single generation later, almost 50 percent of those that married in the late sixties and early seventies have already divorced. ... Between 1970 and 1992, the proportion of babies born outside of marriage leaped from 11% to 30%."
Amara Bachu, Fertility of American Women: June 1994 (Washington D.C.: Bureau of the Census, September 1995), xix, Table K. Cited on page5 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
"According to the National Center for Health Statitics (1988: 2-5), the divorce rate rose from 2.5 per 1000 population in 1965 to 3.5 in 1970 to 4.8 in 1975."
"No-Fault Divorce: Proposed Solutions to a National Tragedy," 1993 Journal of Legal Studies 2, 15, citing National Center for Health Statistics, 1988, 2-5, cited by Thomas B. Marvell, Divorce Rates and the Fault Requirement, 23 Law & Society Review 544, n.4, (1989).
Divorce increased almost 40 percent from 1970 to 1975.
Brian Willats, Breaking Up is Easy To Do, available from Michigan Family Forum, citing Statistics from National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Cited in Kenneth Jost and Marilyn Robinson, "Children and Divorce:What can be done to help children of divorce," CQ Researcher, June 7, 1991, pp. 353, 357.
The marriage rate has fallen nearly 30% since 1970 and the divorce rate has increased about 40%.
Ahlburg and DeVita, "New Realities," 4-12. Cited on page 5 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
"Over the past 30 years a consistent 96% of the American public has expressed a personal desire for marriage. Only 8% of American women consider remaining single ideal, a proportion that has not changed over the past twenty years. Almost three-quarters of adult Americans believe that "marriage is a lifelong commitment that should not be ended except under extreme circumstances." Even 81% of divorced and separate Americans still believe that marriage should be for life."
Rebuilding the Nest: A New Commitment to the American Family, ed. David Blankehorn, Steve Bayme, and Jean Bethke (Milwaukee, WI: Family Service America, c. 1990), 97-98. Cited on page 8 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
65% of new marriages fail.
Teresa Castro Martin and Larry L. Bumpass, "Recent Trends in Marital Disruption", Demography 26 (1989): 37-51. Cited on page5 ofThe Abolition of Marriage, by Maggie Gallagher
for you. I hope it all goes as easy as possible for you.
